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Government has the wrong incentivesWhat happens when the reports you send to your superiors are all that stand between you and your job? Will you report that you are no longer needed? Government agencies certainly will not.November 12, 2009 by Dr David Evans and Joanne Nova
The temptation is all too strong. How many bureaucrats would work just as hard to show that their department was less important, less necessary, and less deserving of funding? It’s the fatal trap of bureaucratic management. The incentives are wrong. When governments are faced with poor reports, but they write their own report cards, they have many options to upgrade their “score”. It’s irrational to think that people might not take every opportunity they can to improve their mark. They are human. Saints are rare. An important method that governments have for dealing with problems is to mismeasure them. By changing definitions, methods of interpreting the data, or through sheer statistical chicanery it’s possible to issue press releases with the words “improvement”, “better than expected” or at least “figures have plateaued”. For example, the inflation of the 1970s was partly “cured” by defining inflation as the consumer price index (CPI), then changing the way that CPI is measured in ways that lower the CPI. Today, the US CPI is about 3 percentage points lower than it would be if the method of 1980 was used. Another example is unemployment, where governments continually refine what counts as “unemployed” so as to lower the unemployment number. There doesn’t need to be a conspiracy. There is constant pressure and rewards in one direction and very little incentive to “find” or “discover” errors that increase the CPI. It’s a ratchet effect. Dozens of incremental changes slowly ratchet the CPI figure endlessly downwards. Governments are going to do the same with global temperature, mismeasuring it to make it appear to be rising faster than it really is. There will be pressure, tremendous pressure, on those who measure global temperature to show a rising temperature. There already is pressure to show rising statistics in order to justify legislation, and to keep departments as high on the scale of “importance” and status with concomitant budgets. The minister who commissions a report that finds that CO2 is minor may be right, but he or she is also now a minister of a smaller department. Likewise Directors of Climate Institutes: If they announce a finding that there is less reason to fear carbon, they are also announcing their own budget cut. The organizations that measure temperature are in government control, because no private group has an interest in measuring global temperatures over the decades required to show significant changes. The government organizations that measure temperatures will tend to produce the answers government needs, because people who do not comply will be effectively forced out of those organizations—their careers will stall, or they won’t be hired in the first place if they don't have the right "attitude". The staff will be self selecting. Only true believers, for whom the ends justify the means, and those with a sufficiently flexible attitude to truth, will survive and thrive in those organizations. Think a future of systematic cheating of temperature data to justify taxes, profits, and more government is too cynical? It's already started:
How would anyone really know if global warming is occurring? People simply don't notice changes as small as 0.5°C, the amount of global warming over the last century. Any perceived cooling can be explained away by alarmists as just “regional variation”. It's beautiful: this scam could go for decades. Even if snow falls earlier than usual and temperatures are noticeably cooler, what’s to stop them from “finding” warming in the vague tropics, or the deep ocean, or in the upper troposphere? The only thing stopping them is the work of volunteers. This is a crazy way to run civilization.
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In daring land and sea raids, activists tag Greenpeace Rainbow Warrior with “Propaganda Warrior” banner; Arctic Sunrise hit with “Ship of Lies” banner earlier in the day... In daring land and sea raids, activists tag Greenpeace Rainbow Warrior with “Propaganda Warrior” banner; Arctic Sunrise hit with “Ship of Lies” banner earlier in the day... In daring land and sea raids, activists tag Greenpeace Rainbow Warrior with “Propaganda Warrior” banner; Arctic Sunrise hit with “Ship of Lies” banner earlier in the day... In daring land and sea raids, activists tag Greenpeace Rainbow Warrior with “Propaganda Warrior” banner; Arctic Sunrise hit with “Ship of Lies” banner earlier in the day... 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Not according to the EPA.... { from Is government standing in the way of lower food costs? }  The future of the bay looks bright: stewardship at its best.... { from Science to save the Chesapeake Bay } How do you turn something as plentiful as grass into food? Feed it to cows and have a B.B.Q.! U.S. meat production per acre has doubled since 1970, largely due to pesticides, veterinary chemistry, and better plant breeding... { from Giving up meat to Save the Planet? } How do you turn something as plentiful as grass into food? Feed it to cows and have a B.B.Q.! U.S. meat production per acre has doubled since 1970, largely due to pesticides, veterinary chemistry, and better plant breeding... { from Giving up meat to Save the Planet? } The future of the bay looks bright: stewardship at its best.... { from Science to save the Chesapeake Bay } How do you turn something as plentiful as grass into food? Feed it to cows and have a B.B.Q.! U.S. meat production per acre has doubled since 1970, largely due to pesticides, veterinary chemistry, and better plant breeding... { from Giving up meat to Save the Planet? } How do you turn something as plentiful as grass into food? Feed it to cows and have a B.B.Q.! U.S. meat production per acre has doubled since 1970, largely due to pesticides, veterinary chemistry, and better plant breeding... { from Giving up meat to Save the Planet? } Scientific "consensus" and other shady sales tactics promote alarmist theories... { from Global warming bait-and-switch } Scientific "consensus" and other shady sales tactics promote alarmist theories... { from Global warming bait-and-switch } |
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Eco-terrorism hits Maryland: 'Inconvenient Terrorist' latest in long line
Inconvenient terrorist James Lee who was shot and killed by a SWAT team in the Discovery Channel Building in Silver Spring, Maryland, is the latest of a long line of eco-terrorists
An Inconvenient Terrorist
Armed eco-terrorist who experienced an “awakening” by watching Al Gore's Inconvenient Truth was shot and killed after storming Discovery Channel Building. Radical manifesto condemns 'parasitic children' and human civilization, calling for sterilization and giving the planet back to the squirrels.
An ill wind in New Jersey
Proposed windmill would cost $7 million, stand taller than the Statue of Liberty, and when the wind isn't blowing would need to be kept turning with electricity from a traditional plant in order to avoid mechanical failure.
End environmental experiments on Africans!
Environmentalists are using African parents and children in anti-DDT experiments. They are playing with our lives. So are the government agencies and others who support their policies. This is wrong and immoral. And it is only one of the ways they use Africans as experimental laboratory animals.
Prepare for an ice age!
"Little ice ages" are the flip side of the 1500-year warming cycle. We should take advantage of the favorable climate we are currently enjoying to increase research on high-yield agriculture, biotechnology, water conservation and other advances now only dreamt of.
Howard Stern: 'Bring back DDT!'
Stern argues that New York's bedbug problem is nothing compared to the millions dying from malaria in Africa, quoting extensively from an article by CFACT's Paul Driessen.
New York's bedbugs vs. Africa's malaria crisis
Our obsession with pesticide “risks” has very different consequences for America and Africa.
How to save the Chesapeake Bay: Oysters vs. Regulations
Oysters kept the Bay clean in the past, but the EPA is ignoring this proven solution in favor of big government regulations.
New ethanol policy poses heavy cost for consumers
E15 ethanol mandates would bring huge benefits for ethanol producers at the expense of the rest of us.
Empowering the poor in the Yucatan jungle
Local villagers struggle to survive in Becan, but a new program promises to bring prosperity by unleashing their creativity and energy.
The global warming fleecing of the American taxpayer
The federal government has spent tens of billions of taxpayer dollars on research that has completely failed to affect temperatures or demonstrate an empirical link between human CO2 emissions and global warming.
Target: Monckton
Lord Monckton is under attack, a sure sign that he’s winning on warming. Monckton fights back and refutes Prof. Abraham.
New coal mine approved in Utah
In a victory for the nation’s beleaguered resources industry, Utah officials have approved a permit for a coal mine in their state.
EPA set to crack down on farm dust
Agency believes dust is a pollutant and wants to impose stringent limitations on the amount of dust farmers are allowed to kick up while plying their trade.
Climate Depot’s award hat trick
Marc Morano receives another award for his journalism covering the global warming movement.
Climate proposals threaten pursuit of happiness and justice
New study documents harmful effects of “cap-and-trade” and “endangerment” schemes.
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