Global warming policy is based on climate computer models.

These simulations of the temperature of the Earth are wrong and always have been.

They start out on the left side of the graph looking pretty good.  They have to.  Real-world recorded temperature observations had already been made.

It’s like projecting the results of races that have already been run.

As soon as the models start trying to project the future, however, they diverge wildly from reality, pretty much always running way too hot.

Projecting races that have not yet run is a trickier business.

Dr. Roy Spencer and Dr. John Christy manage temperature satellites for NASA.  They are climate scientists based at the University of Alabama in Huntsville.  They regularly publish temperature data as their instruments record it and offer expert commentary on climate science and the computer simulations it is based on.  Their work is invaluable.  On Earth Day Dr. Spencer posted the comparison of observed temperature to simulated temperature above.

All of the temperature datasets show that the Earth is warmer today when compared to various baselines.  No one “denies” this.  “Climate denial” is a straw man argument.  Those same datasets also show that climate computer simulations project a far warmer Earth than real-world observations show.

This indicates that the computer models may factor in a greater climate sensitivity to CO2 and other greenhouse gases than observations justify.

This is a massive problem.  Global warming campaigners take the most extreme models, the ones that are nowhere close to reality, and use them to generate frightening scenarios that are used in turn to argue for extreme “solutions.”  That these so-called “solutions” solve nothing meaningful, and are unable to pass cost-benefit analysis when factored into those same climate models, is an inconvenient truth Team Warming does not want discussed.

In science, theories and projections must follow the data.  Scientists must never alter the data to suit a desired outcome.  However, “adjusting” the data to fit the models is now a regular occurrence.  Somehow, these technical corrections are always weighted toward warming.  Inconveniently, the “adjustments” are still never enough to make these models match reality.

The inability of “climate communicators” to showcase temperature predictions that actually come true, leaves them constantly exaggerating natural weather events and fighting to silence critics to compensate.

The Biden Administration is pushing to remake the American energy economy, expend vast sums of public money, and place unprecedented restrictions on American freedom, based on climate computer models that run too hot.

Those with a vested interest in global warming are doing all they can to ensure that American voters never learn the facts.


For a master class in the tricks and traps of the climate trade turn to CFACT’s feature films Climate Hustle and Climate Hustle 2: Rise of the Climate Monarchy.  You’ll learn a lot.

Climate models hotter than reality

Climate Hustle

Climate Hustle 2:
Rise of the Climate Monarchy


  • Craig Rucker

    Craig Rucker is a co-founder of CFACT and currently serves as its president.