This is such a classic truth in my world, I make no secret about how at this stage of my life I see the majesty of the creator in the way the weather works. What many take for granted to me is awe-spiring. I just wish I had become this way sooner.
Now let’s link what Chambers says to what we see in climate. The first part is self-explanatory If someone thinks co2 is the reason for the warming, then he will only see the warming in light of what he believes. Same with me, the other way. But the HUGE DIFFERENCE. between someone like me and someone that is invincibly entrenched in a position that is arrogant by definition ( mainly I can’t be wrong, so do as I say). is in the second part.
Paraphrased to apply here. A forecast is confidence in the result before you see it emerging. THEREFORE THE VERY NATURE OF THE FORECAST IS THAT IT MUST BE TRIED. As in questioned. As in allowing debate. As in pursuing THE ANSWER, NOT YOUR ANSWER
Humor me okay. Its Sunday when I am writing this. Let’s go to Proverbs 25:2
It is the glory of God to conceal a matter. To search that matter out is the glory of kings
So something that is concealed requires a search for it to be revealed. However the “Kings” of climate change think a) it is not concealed becase they have the answer, as any God would, and b). They will not even allow for the search and actually TRY TO CONCEAL THROUGH DEMONIZATION TACTICS, EVIDENCE THAT WOULD SHINE A DIFFERENT LIGHT ON THE MATTER.
So who is motivated by what here?
Now to the meat of this. I get sent almost everything that shows up out there. I do not go looking for it, but if someone sends me something (let’s say a Ph.D. in meteorology, astrophysics, climatology, geology, or the Godfather Marc Morano), I will then look at it
So Dr Gavin Schmidts tweet was recently sent to me
Its fascinating. You can use scale to play around all you want. There is no question about the trend up, It matches nicely the warming of the oceans. So why is it not the oceans? Well its a much harder argument to make that the oceans are being forced by small amounts of co2 increase. It would mean you woul have to explain the back and forths as well as get into messy arguments about what you do not KNOW WHICH IS VOLUMES when it comes to the oceans,
So here is how this works, The air is warming, Co2 is increasing Co2 is causing the warming, Throw out the fact the oceans are the worlds largest reservoir of co2 and release it as it warms, Throw out minor things like Saturation mixing ratios which show a direct correlation of water vapor to temperature and plainly show that minute amounts of water vapor make the biggest difference where its coldest and driest, therefore creating distorted warming, lessening the pole to equator gradient of temperatures and perhaps leading to LESS extreme weather. If one takes the warming where life thrives on the planet one will find Dr Schmidt’s chart, ( compacted ) would be much less dramatic. In fact so much so one would say what’s the big deal?
As far as the.top 5 warm years being so recent. The Day I bench pressed my max, do you jnow the following 5 workouts were all in the top 5 too! NO JOKE ITS WARM We just had a second super Nino. I have shown this many times but I will again. I understand the simplicity of this is very offensive to those who thrive on the complex and use it to try to conceal what may be the answer (It is like they play God. it is not up to the scientific elite of today to play God and try to conceal arguments that may counter them, Though if you have a God complex, maybe that is a reason for why you are doing it) If its only God that can save the world, then if you think you can, what can we infer? Whats more if there is no God, then it leaves the perfect vacuum for you to step into. I do not think people think that way on purpose ( although George Soros once said he feels like God). but the result is there
Let us Take. Dr Roy Spencers chart. Keep in mind this is against the most recent 30 years. If you used this against lets say 1950-2000, the deviations would be higher. But the trend is the same
jagged steady increase up. Or is it a “step-up” function directly related to Super Ninos against the backdrop of a warming ocean that we know little about compared to the air? Super Ninos occurred in 1982. From 1982 to 1996 there is a plateau. Next Super Nino 1997. From 1997 to 2015 a new higher plateau develops, Since the Super Nino of 15-16. another higher one has developed. I am partial to this because when the Super Nino went off I forecasted a new higher plateau to develop so excuse my confirmation bias. ( I am seeing what I believe but at least I admit it)
The increase in plateau 1 is about .25C. The latest about .2C. The la nina cooling is not yet done as it lags a bit. But the step up being less would make sense as there is no tipping point in the atmosphere instead its diminishing effect whether with water vapor and especially with co2 as Dr Will Happer has pointed out.
But see what happens when you change scales? See what happens when you then dig into the scale? See what happens when you show people the correlation between water vapor and temps
super ninos pump tremendous amounts of WV into the air, This spreads out. When its all spread out the increase in WV in the coldest driest plaes has the greatest impact during its cold, dry season, Circle back to the inconvenient truth again pointing the finger at water vapor, arctic temperatures with thei dramatic increases in the coldest driest time of the year but nothing in the summer! The increase in the small amount of WV makes a big difference in winter but not in summer, Why because at. around the summer mean the small amount of WV does not have the impact as it does in the dead of winter. Ice melt also is a self-regulating factor as melting takes energy out of the air ( cools) the air. Freezing the opposite. Marvelous isnt it how nature has built-in counters
Summer is not warming
Now the real argument is with the oceans and co2. But there is a big problem with that, We dont know nearly as much about what is going on in the ocean as we do in the air. And the air is the tip of the iceberg. The ocean warming can be from a myriad of reasons. And yes one of them may be co2. But for agenda driven zealots this is something they want no part of cause the amount of research needed is like we would be starting over again, The fact is the oceans are warming, they are releasing water vapor and more co2 but if the oceans are the source and its independant co2, then a whole cottage industry of global warming and ppltical weapon is destroyed. Can’t have that can we. We will come out of Covid. but we will never come out of Climate.
Here is the bottom line. The brilliant minds on the other side of the issue are valuable in getting the truth out. 1) I know this may make many of you get mad with me, but as long as the planet warms, they have an argument and the link to it 2) The counters, as much as they are allowed to show up like places here like CFACT, are available when they make their statements. The HUGE PROBLEM IS THAT THERE ARE WAYS OF BEING OUT IN FRONT OF THIS SO YOU LITERALLY CREATE A TRAP BY FORECASTING SOMETHING BEFOREHAND. I have been trying to get anyone who will listen to understand that if you truly want to level this playing field, you do so where they have no way of countering, As brilliant as many of these guys are, I rather doubt they are currently worried for instance about thunderstorm clusters in the tropical oceans and the possible implications of feedback in the long range weather pattern, but you can bet your inflated dollar they will bring up the event that may occur from it it shows up. Instead, its the same old story, tit for tat response, and the agenda marches on.
Oh well. When I get a chance I will try to post on some things as I do. And Forgive my spiritual overtones. It’s Sunday when I am writing this ( heh that’s funny asking for forgiveness for dare bringing something spiritual into a matter).