Although much of the 2024 electoral focus in the West will be on the U.S. presidential elections in November, another significant election will be occurring in February — when Indonesians go to the polls on Valentine’s Day.
Indonesia has the world’s fourth-largest population, forecast to surpass that of the United States by 2043.
The single-day election is thus the world’s largest demonstration of real democracy in action, determining both the president and vice president, as well as selecting almost 20,000 representatives of national, provincial, and district parliaments from a pool of a quarter-million candidates.
Why It Matters
Indonesia is the world’s 15th largest economy by Gross Domestic Product (GDP), forecast to improve in the coming years. As the largest economy in Southeast Asia, it’s also strategically important to the United States and China as they compete for influence over the region.
In October of 2023, China’s President Xi met with Indonesian President Joko Widodo, known as Jokowi, and stressed how he wanted to expand and strengthen cooperation with Indonesia.
The following month, it was U.S. President Joe Biden’s turn to meet with Jokowi, with the United States then upgrading Indonesia to the status of a ‘Comprehensive Strategic Partner’ and promising further investment in the country and closer collaboration.
Who Is Competing?
The Presidential contest has come down to a three-horse race between former General and current Defence Minister Prabowo Subianto, Central Java Governor Ganjar Pranowo, and academic and former governor of Jakarta Anies Baswedan.
One of the latest polls conducted by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) at the end of December put Prabowo in a commanding lead. One of the latest polls on the race, in January, reported Prabowo’s lead standing at 56%.
However, with further debates planned between the Presidential candidates and their proposed vice presidents, the race is far from over.
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Prabowo has publicly said that Indonesia would not look to take sides between the two superpowers. In November of 2023, he signed a Defence Cooperation Arrangement (DCA) between the United States and Indonesia, and a recent analysis by CSIS viewed that his approach “aligns with U.S. interests and democratic values.”
Ganjar is seen as more pro-China and his party, the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P), and the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) have a history of close ties.
In June 2023, he praised Russia, China, and India for not following the West and saying that “Indonesia must follow suit, become the fourth country in this chain, and fulfill our dreams in 2024,” potentially indicating an early departure from the Comprehensive Strategic Partnership with America.
In early 2023, he was seen to commit a foreign policy gaffe when, several months before the recent events in Gaza, Ganjar refused to host Israeli teams for the FIFA U20 football championship.
As a result, FIFA moved the games away from Indonesia, causing anger among the young and losing an estimated $250m in venue renovation costs and foregone tourism.
Prabowo Subianto
Having joined the army in 1970, Prabowo rose to be commander of the army’s special forces under President Soeharto. He would compete in the 2014 and 2019 presidential elections but lost these to Jokowi.
Jokowi appointed him as Minister of Defence in 2019.
Prabowo has since pledged to work with his erstwhile rivals if he were to win in 2024, saying how he is “committed to collaborating across the political spectrum to serve the Indonesian people if I am entrusted with their mandate.”
During his first 18 months as Defense Minister, he conducted 20 foreign visits to 14 countries in a bid to formulate a 25-year Defence acquisition plan, leading to a DCA being signed with France in 2021, a DCA with the U.S., and an agreement with the UK for British-designed frigates to be built in Indonesia, reflecting an ability to deliver on key projects on the international stage.
Prabowo is today supported by Budiman Sudjatmiko, a pro-democracy activist, politician, and member of Ganjar’s PDI-P party. Likewise, even though Jokowi is also aligned with the PDI-P, he has endorsed Prabowo, rather than his fellow party member Ganjar, for the 2024 election.
Ganjar Pranowo
Ganjar entered public service in 2004, working on governmental special committees until he became Governor of Central Java.
He was a dynamic leader during COVID-19, seen distributing medical support across the region, and gained popularity with his populist outreach to communities.
However, in terms of delivering on policies, he has not performed well at a regional level.
During his first term as governor, farmers turned away from him at the polls, criticising him for a fertiliser shortage and also for favouring industry and big business over the environment and farmers’ interests.
He would override the Supreme Court’s environmental concerns and local sentiment to approve the construction of a cement factory, leading to civil disruption and judicial process concerns.
He has also referred to LGBT Indonesians as demons who must be exterminated and blamed wives for causing their husbands’ corruption.
He told a women’s group in September of 2023 that wives put pressure on their husbands to live beyond their means, causing the men to resort to corrupt actions.
It additionally does not help his cause that in 2007, when the Indonesian Central Bank wanted support in passing bills regarding the banking industry, he accepted free flights and cash, which he registered under the name “Ganjar Prastowo,” a tactic raising doubts over his subsequent protestations that he had not done anything wrong.
Anies Baswedan
Anies served as Minister of Education and Culture under Jokowi from 2014 to 2016 and as the Governor of Jakarta from 2017 to 2022.
Concerns have, however, been raised about opaque government procurement processes under his leadership. In the last few weeks alone, his campaign spokesperson, Indra Charismiadji, was arrested for “alleged embezzlement and financial fraud.”
Prior to his 2017 campaign for Governor, Anies was seen as a moderate Muslim.
A Guardian article reports how, when he competed against a popular ethnic Chinese Christian incumbent, he opted to play the religion card and appeal to the Islamic base.
In the 2024 election, he has positioned himself to be a voice of change among the contenders, criticising many policies of the current government including the planned construction of a new capital city.
His lecturer’s background was seen to help him to a strong performance in the first presidential debate, but this was mainly due to his criticism of others, rather than due to the strength of his own policies.
Indonesia’s 2024 Presidential Matters Greatly . . .
. . . Not just to the 277 million people whose lives will be directly impacted by the result – but to the U.S. and global economies.
The challenge of governing a country as large as Indonesia, as it seeks to continue its development and impose itself on the global stage, is huge.
Prabowo is the standout leader at this juncture and represents the best chance for Indonesia to achieve its potential, both domestically and globally.
If he wins over 50% in the election’s first round, this would forgo additional campaigning and ultimately send a positive message of unity for a country not only seeking but warranting greater international attention.