I refer you to this May 23 post, which forecasted the hysteria you see now in the media.
https://www.cfact.org/2024/05/23/the-summer-offensive-on-climate-ramping-up/
But how many people being bombarded by this actually read this blog or hear anything that runs counter to the mass attack of one-sided ideas you are seeing?
How do the people pushing the doom and gloom explain this track record?
So, in no particular order, let’s outline some counters.
1) The Pacific hurricane season.
The Pacific Basin is much larger than the Atlantic and has almost 4 times the Accumulated Cyclonic Energy Index of the Atlantic. ( 432). The Atlantic Basin averages 122. So, if you want to use tropical cyclones as a barometer of how bad it is getting, how come the last 4 years have found the Pacific so far below normal ( last year did reach an average ACE in the west Pac, but a near record low number of storms).
After all, the water is so warm,
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So why is the western Pacific 25% of the average, the eastern Pacific 0%, and perhaps on the way to breaking the record for the latest development? ( The West Pac was a top 5 late development this year). And why aren’t we hearing about this? Globally, we are at 75% of average, and even tho I expect the hyper-Atlantic season, I don’t think it will be enough to take the global Ace above average. There has been no increase in this, and the lowering overall is to be expected. Tropical cyclones are nature’s way of taking heat off to the tropics and redistributing it to the temperate regions. I have been arguing for 2 decades that a warming world is not the harbinger of an orgy of attacks, as only one basin is liable to be active. What is the need for hyperactivity if the heat is already distributed? The warmer north waters change the global wind oscillation, sea level pressure, and vertical velocity patterns, arguing for less, not more, activity. The Atlantic, a much smaller basin, can take up some of the slack. The configuration of the cold La Nina, the very warm Main Development region, and the colder water off the US southeast coast will cause the focus to create the storms (and, of course, the hysteria)in our part of the world.) Meanwhile, the largest source of tropical activity is likely to be well below normal and offset it. But what will you hear about? Why is no one bringing up that the warming is working AGAINST storms in the largest basin?
2) Oh Canada
See what is going on here
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Environment Canada put out a red paint bomb for their summer GUIDANCE. This is not a forecast; it is a probability of an occurrence, and there is a big difference as if it meets their criteria for above normal, whatever that may be, it verifies. However, probabilities are not a measurable metric in real time. If an occurrence is taking place or has taken place, it is either 0 or 100. So, a forecast is ACTUAL TEMPERATURES RELATIVE TO AVERAGE, not just showing probabilities. In any case, for June, the US models had this temperature forecast from June 21, when entries are due, for instance, in our weatherbell.com forecast contest.
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These are increments of .5C,1C,2C 3C. So, it is a forecast.
That forecast is not even close. The month so far:
And the rest of the month.
That is going to be a big hole to dig out from for the entire summer.
If you think that’s bad, look where the climate model is ranked in our contest.
The climate models are the last 2 for the US as the human touch is beating it like Scarlett Ohara beat her mule ( The Forecast is Gone with the Wind).
3)Look at the difference in how Canadian weather presenters are presenting temperatures. The top in 2018 had similar temperatures as a more recent example, but look at what the recent example looks like below.
In fact, the flaming red colors are lower than the example above.
4) While we are up north, let’s look at arctic temperatures.
Yet another year of arctic temps near normal in the height of the melt season (normal temperature north of 80 north being about 34). While all the warming is in the colder months, pointing the finger at Water vapor, not CO2, due to the correlations of WV to temp ( NO SUCH THING EXISTS FOR CO2, YOU KNOW WHY? BECAUSE THERE IS NONE).
So, how is the ice cap going to disappear if it is barely above freezing? Try melting a block of ice at 33 degrees and see how long it takes. But, of course, that does not discourage these people. They simply lie or are ignorant, and why not? No one calls them on it.
5). Arctic Sea ice right now; dark blue is above the 2011-2020 mean (light blue) and above 2006 when Al Gore was making predictions about it being gone and getting a Nobel prize for his climate propaganda movie. Can someone in the media stop with the Hunter Biden laptop strategy of hiding this stuff on climate and call him on it?
https://www.cfact.org/2023/05/20/the-hunter-biden-laptop-comparison-to-climate/
6)The Canary in the Coal Mine, according to this ilk, is the Greenland Ice Cap. If there is record melting, it is because there is record snow. Yet another year looking like it wants to get above average, given the forecast for the next 45 days.
Shockingly, it snows so much in Greenland in summer (sarc). But you would think the way the melting is pushed, it does not. The average person knows little about Greenland’s climate, so when they hear all this stuff, guess what they think?
7) Very cool India through SE Asia
We have heard enough about the early season heat in SE ASIA and in May and early June in India. But the monsoon is developing.
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And it will be a strong one this year, similar to 2005,2017,2020.
(Which is linked to the active Atlantic hurricane season we have forecasted.)
And so look what happens to temperatures, a very cool 45-day period.
You’ll hear about any flooding or, of course, the hurricanes, but not the cool turnaround. (BTW, the warmest 45-day period of the year in New Delhi is May 1 -to June 15 when it’s dry, and the average high is around 107 at the highest.) It is like Phoenix being 108 in mid-summer (its average), so if it gets 2 above normal, you hear about it hitting 110 as if it never happened before.
8) How hot was last summer in Phoenix?
June was quite cool.
July was torrid.
August backed off.
Summer was brutal overall from New Mexico to Louisiana.
But for much of the nation, it was a wash.
How about precip? Well, in a big country, you expect wet and dry areas.
And we got it. In fact, one can argue the extreme event was it was about as balanced a summer as you can have. Places very wet ( New England and parts of the Rockies) and very dry (N plains and Texas). But you want to see extreme? How about the summers of 1934 and 1936?
Temps
precip
9)And what about this June that you are made to believe is a sign of extremes?
June 34,36
I am adding perspective. As I mentioned in the last blog, my company has warned clients and subscribers and shown as much as I can that we expect a top 5 hot JAS, but the point is that perspective needs to be added, so one can see precedent to years when co2 was not the monster its made out to be.
https://www.cfact.org/2024/06/19/if-you-are-dry-you-fry-in-the-summer-naturally/
And finally, my last stop on this tour. My favorite hammer I like to use when asking people about how the method of CO2 warming, the back radiation that penetrates only the top mm or 2 of the ocean, causes the ocean to warm. In this case — a shocking warming in 2 months around Australia.
In November, the forecast for around Australia was fine for a cold winter with the warm water to the west and a cooler look to the east.
This would support the Madden-Julian Oscillation, which is crucial for winter in the colder phases ( 8,1,2). The warmer phases are 4/5/6. SSTs are crucial to its intensity and phases. All the warm water around Africa and into the India ocean encourages the colder phases.
And then the geothermal input hit (it can’t be anything but that; it wasn’t the sun, and it certainly wasn’t CO2).
That is an amazing regional bust, right in line with what Dr. Wyss Yim talks about in his underwater heatwave ideas.
You can see, like almost all of us, the acknowledgment that humans may have something to do with it, but it pales compared to solar and geothermal.
But that warm water around Australia encourages lower pressure and more upward motion further east, and yanking the MJO phases into the dreaded (if you like snow and cold) phases 4/5/6. The models had no idea because our buoy saturation only goes down to 6k, and we have it on every 112k square miles. So where did it come from? It did not come from atmospheric interaction because the models would have seen it. It is not magic. It had to be input from below.
The MJO wound up in the warm phases. Remember major cold came in January early, but like Lucy pulling the football from Charley Brown, the sudden warming killed it.
The other models missed it, too. Here are the Japanese Meteorological Agency temperatures in November.
So it had a monster winter forecasted ( which I agreed with)
But look what happened.
All this against an El Nino analog that said it should be cool there, and supported the cooler phases of the MJO.
It Destroyed my winter forecast, but on the other hand re-enforces what has to be going on with geothermal. It can’t be from anything else.
Now, these 10 examples serve a purpose: to give perspective to all this and to try to show all that is going on, not just selective agenda-driven ideas. People in the meteorological media won’t even touch this stuff. (Is lack of information misinformation, which they certainly are guilty of by not showing all the facts?) Yet it’s all there, and if you want the why behind the what, you need all the information. The Green New Deal continues to cause global chaos and they know they are likely one administration away from closing the door on reversing this. Such things are hidden because the rational, open-minded person might frame the narrative in a way that leads to questioning, and that’s the last thing people, who are engaged in weather weaponization, want to see.