We have to get rid of this obsession with numbers. It is ruining the advancement of rational hurricane discussions in relation to climate. It is a red herring as it avoids the biggest forecast problem WHICH IS WHERE WILL THEY GO, AND WHAT THEIR IMPACT WILL BE?
As we forecast, this year was the opposite of last year. Outside of the vastly overrated Idalia, as far as actual landfall winds were concerned, there was next to nothing in the areas in our red zone of highest impact for this year. So you had all those storms, but so what? Its only the weather weaponizer that would jump on the number, and fail to mention last year in the Western Pacific which on average has 3 times the amount of activity as the Atlantic, was 3rd LOWEST on record.
The congregation of tracks was way out at sea. Granted that makes a difference for marine interests but look at that compared to this year. The red area was our idea from December 7 last year on where to look for the most activity
(No such forecast will be made this year as early as it does stick out for next year as strongly. I will wait for Feb or March)
But which season is more impactful? Last year the usual suspects were cooing about the number of storms being 4th highest, This year they screamed about them hitting the US. Meanwhile, my side is making a big deal about the lower number. YET THE ACE/STORM THIS YEAR IS THE HIGHEST SINCE 2017. This says the average storm was stronger. And with all the hits on the US coast, why would you bring up the lower number? Because this whole climate debate has turned into a tit-for-tat battle where the entire picture is hidden if you want to make a point. I can’t abide by that, so despite my fervent belief that man is not causing all this, I have to show the whole picture. But the fact is the true denialists are on the other side of the issue cause they will weaponize a ham sandwich if they thought it would make a point. Between guys like Al Gore, John Kerry et al you truly have a cabal that expose their deception distortion, and delusion.
In any case, the ACE/STORM THIS YEAR IS 9
Last year 7.5
You have to go back to 2017 which was about 14 per storm to find a higher year
Before that, it was 2004 at 16/storm
BTW in the 1950s the average ace per storm was over 10. This means we are either seeing more weak storms or weaker overall ones. They are certainly in general smaller and less. long tracked which shoots down the ideas of Weaponizers of Tropical cyclones
The same kind of thing is going on in the real climate canary in the coal mine if there is one on tropical cyclones, the western Pacific.
But my side cooing over the lower number totals is also misplaced. What the heck did you want to see? Rafael come all the way up or Sara not move into Central America which would have meant the highest US impact season on record? It is crazy to me to gloat over lower numbers when we have had such a destructive season, and the idea it would be one from hell hqd merit. The hellscape of 10 days without power in Houston and the horror of what is still going on in the western Carolinas, as winter comes, means you should probably stop trying to make points over lower total numbers.
I never changed the impact forecast with the update on Sept 5 I did lower numbers which did verify.
https://www.cfact.org/2024/09/05/updated-hurricane-forecast-additonal-big-impact-still-expected/
BUT THE MOST IMPORTANT ASPECT IF YOU ARE A RATIONAL HUMAN BEING AND NOT SOMEONE TRYING TO SCORE CLIMATE CHANGE POINTS ON BOTH SIDES OF THE DEBATE IS THAT THIS WAS A HORRIBLE YEAR FOR THE US. And despite being way BELOW NORMAL in the West Pac, the landfilling typhoons and higher ace/storm did return there. What is obvious is the distortion of warming is impacting the heart of the tropical seasons and I explained that here after the mid season update.
https://www.cfact.org/2024/09/30/the-whys-of-the-hurricane-season-so-far/
For the Northern Hemisphere, yet another season with below-normal Accumulated Cyclonic Energy Production at 83% of average
The conclusion of the season to me
1) The Saffir Simpson Scale needs to be replaced with something like, if not our actual, Power and Impact Scale which nailed the season when compared to the damage actually done. Size matters and we take that strongly into account. it also means we have to re analyze all storms so that with the size of the storm taken into account we have a data base that can stop the weather weaponizers on the other side from making their irrational assumptions about the tropics to score points. They are screaming at a mirror. Time to break that mirror.
2) The focus going forward should not be on numbers and probabilities. No one knows what the heck that means in the public. Take a shot at where they are going to go like we have been doing since I came aboard here at weatherbell.com. That means you have to work on what you believe the perceived pattern over the tropics is going to look like and line it up against other years, It’s labor, for me a labor of love. It also means a more detailed analysis of the global weather pattern rather than the water is warm, a ton of storms.
3) Stop with the weaponization of events or numbers as a sign of climate change There are plenty of counters to all the propaganda
4) Before you try to downplay this season, understand the magnitude of the damage this year.
One more storm and instead of being second place, it is first:
On our scale as far as total impact intensity on the coast it’s 3rd. damage iIt is 2cnd. So the scale does a darn good job of letting people know how bad they are and what is coming.