Here comes the end of the hurricane season propaganda push.
https://nautil.us/the-new-climate-math-on-hurricanes-1164220/
You can go on and read it. I will do my own math to show the absurdity of this.
But right off the bat, it is full of nonsense.
They use a textbook rapid feed case in a pattern showed on September 8th by my company and then forecasted 10 days before, hitting an area where very few major hurricanes hit, and try to say this is an example of how climate change is adding to hurricanes.
Okay, I have the counter and it occurred in 1938 in New England, not over the southeast US.
The same kind of thing happened, granted a week earlier in the year, but c’mon the strongest hurricane in a century hitting New England, killing over 600 people, blowing down over 2 billion board feet of timber in the mountains, and putting Providence Rhode Island under 13 feet of water, Hows that for math?
So by my math, the 1938 hurricane and as written earlier, Hurricane Hazel in 1954, a category 4 hitting further up the coast 3 weeks later is MORE impressive than Helene.
As far as tropical cyclones getting worse, they are not. In the Atlantic basin, they generally are more compact and feedback when approaching the coast at perpendicular angles in favorable phases of the Madden-Julian Oscillation.
So let’s look at the Atlantic Basin whose average ace. ( accumulated cyclonic energy) index is 122.
9 years out of 10 above normal. Pretty bad eh? Sure sign of climate change, eh?
Looks like its getting worse, right? It is averaging a bit over 140 a season.
And notice what they do here. Anything above the average of 122 is shaded above. Why not a plus or minus 15, which is a reasonable variation for normal? How is a season almost 30 below normal listed as near normal, while one 10 above is listed as above? This is the kind of skewed logic people pushing this use.
But what about the eastern Pacific? Its average Ace is about the same as the Atlantic, a bit more at 132.
Here it is even worse. They have a visibly below normal year listed as above and years more than 30 below as near normal.
The 10-year mean is 151. So around North America, it has been more active. But the counterweight is the western Pacific.
How about the western Pacific? The normal ACE is almost 3 times that of the Atlantic near 300.
So the most important basin the Northern Hemisphere has more below than above.
If we are talking about the idea that we have a climate change signal, I can argue that the real signal and the greatest bang for the buck has a 10-year average below normal. In fact, our friends at Wikipedia have this wrong. The 2019 season was not above normal, it was below. The 10-year average in the biggest bang for the buck basin is 253 or well below average.
Between the 3 basins, the average is 555. The 10-year total adding it up is 544.
So globally the northern hemisphere in the 3 big basins is near average, actually a bit below below.
Do you understand it a sign of a cycle that is easily explained by the distorted warming that has taken place due to the nature of the warming, where there can be no accurate measurement of man’s influence since the warming of the ocean is following along the lines of the THERMOHALINE CIRCULATION, which is redistributing oceanic warmth.
THIS CAN NOT BE CAUSED BY THE SO-CALLED “BACK RADIATION OF CO2”, WHICH PENETRATES ONLY THE TOP MM OF THE OCEANS, but instead large-scale natural forcings such as solar and in the past 35 years as I have shown, geothermal input.
How is it these people come out with this stuff after a season? Did they predict this on December 7th.
They are obsessed with their silly numbers game. Do you know why? Because they can avoid an actual forecast like what you see above by hiding it in math and selective verification to further their agenda. But there are plenty of counters.
So how about this? The West Pac had record warm water this hurricane season. How come the ace was so far below average? How come the 10-year mean is below average with the warm water in the biggest basin with the most energy contribution to the ACE index?. Isn’t that part of the climate math? If so why is it not mentioned?
I have gone over this many times as to the distortion of the heat causing a different feedback leading to this kind of countering on a global level. So while this has been horrible in Florida, it tends to run in cycles there just like everywhere else, That the recent cycle has been on the west coast of FLA is a problem, but what about the LACK OF MAJOR HITS south of West Palm Beach since 1992? In fact, since 1950 only 1 major hurricane ( Andrew) has hit that part of Florida. Or New England, no land-falling hurricane since 1991 while 7 hit between 1938 and 1991. And which is more extreme 2 majors in 20 days in a pattern we picked out September 8th with our infamous governor Attention Governor De Santis tweets, or 2 majors in 11 days in New England in 1954?
And one more thing. Does the math figure into storms like Rafael, a major this year that fell apart in the gulf? Do they have any idea how rare that is, for a major hurricane in the gulf NOT to make landfall as at least a tropical storm anywhere? What about that?
All this finger-pointing at storms as examples of man-made climate change or somehow claiming math supports it is by people WHO DO NOT FORECAST DAILY ON A GLOBAL SCALE and are paid because that is the answer they have to come up with. They have no job or purpose ( since they have made it their) life if they come up with any other answer. They Weaponize the Weather in a Phony Climate War.
The solution is a rehaul of how we classify the intensity of hurricanes with a “size matters” power and impact scale like Weatherbell.com has pioneered since 2011 and then reanalyze all storms based on that. Short tracked compact storms like we are seeing can get very intense at the center if they hit the coast intensifying, but if weakening, we will get storms like Idalia and Milton where the reported winds never showed up. That Helene was a throwback to the bigger storms of the past shocks people because they don’t know the past. Unprecedented in that part of FLA and the Carolinas, but not nearly unprecedented as far as what nature can do. New England 1938 is but one example, and that almost 90 years ago.
Do the math.