I’ve been writing extensively about the upcoming hurricane season for you recently. Our initial forecast was published in February, well ahead of others. NOAA has yet to release its forecast, but I suspect it will align closely with ours. However, focusing solely on the total number of storms is misleading. Numbers mean little without impact. For instance, in years when populated areas of New York and New England were hit (1938, 1944, 1954, 1969, 1976, 1985, 1991), the average number of storms was slightly over 12—near the 50-year average and below the average since the start of the century.
Much has been made, and rightly so, of the clustering of storms in the Gulf and the rapid intensification of storms approaching the coast. Our blogs have taken great care to explain why this is happening. We’re seeing smaller storms compared to the massive ones that dominated the oceans when the Northeast was frequently hit. Meanwhile, the Southeast coast of Florida has been spared, with no major hurricane strikes since 1992. In New England, no hurricane has made landfall since 1991. Consider this: from 1938 to 1991, eight hurricanes struck the coast of New England and Long Island, averaging one every seven years. Since then, nothing. This absence is as remarkable as the major events elsewhere.
That 1954 season featured 2 major hits in New England within 11 days. That’s New England, not the Gulf Coast.
So, when will this pattern change? There are hints it could be this year. Our impact forecast, an update to our February outlook, is now available. Compare it to other forecasts—you’ll find unique insights here that you won’t see elsewhere.
https://www.cfact.org/2025/04/09/hurricane-forecast-update/
The red area includes New England this year.
Unlike last year. This is a forecast that was issued in December.
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Now, why are New England and Long Island a concern? Why, in April ,would I alert you to this?
First of all, if the hurricane drought breaks, we can say the link was there in past years. It’s not climate change. It’s simply looking at past set ups.
But since 1992, the mean 500 mb pattern on the east has favored a ridge in May, and there have been no landfalling hurricanes on Long Island or in New England. We came close in 2011, but Irene, unlike other strong storms in the Atlantic, fell apart. And Sandy got bullwhipped in south of New England late in October 2012.. Is all this a coincidence, or is there some kind of hint?
May 500 mb anomaly pattern since 1992.
This is opposite of the data on landfalling New England Hurricanes from the years before 1991. So we have an analog and antilog agreement!
The European is doing its best to approximate this in its May monthly (considering none of these can see negatives).
So this tells us there is a pattern in May. When we look at all the other factors, it may mean the hurricane drought in New England ends. I am dealing just with New England and New York here, because the person that can predict the one year it does hit, after 33 plus years of no hits, would have to show skill beforehand.
But why would a pattern in May telegraph a hurricane later? Well, if we go to those years again, for the heart of the hurricane season, the troughs are over SE Canada.
Would that not sweep storms out to sea? It would in a lot of cases, but not all. When you look southwest of the trough for areas favorable for storm development. Those troughs, when there is a weakness below, mean that when the hurricane interacts with the trough, the trough may reform back to the west. The classic example is Carol in 1954. The upper air pattern had Boston’s flow coming from southern Canada 36 hours before she knocked down the tower at the old North Church.
Here is an example:
Aug 29. Carol is north of the Bahamas with a strong negative over SE Canada.
Aug 30
Look at that upper flow over the northeast where places would be devastated 24-36 hours later.
Aug 31
That morning at 8 am, my dad, returning home from his Graveyard Shift at United Wire in Cranston, RI, had the Today show on and David Garroway announced Hurricane Carol had passed east of Cape Hatteras overnight and would break up east of Cape Cod that afternoon.
Then he would say to me, “20 minutes later the power went out in Westerly.”
But see how fast that turned around?
11 days later, it happened again, though the track was 75 miles further east, with EDNA. 2 majors in 11 days. Look at the pattern 2 days before. Again, the negative is there.
One more interesting tidbit. El Nino is no friend to New England. 3 of the 8 hurricanes mentioned hit during El Nino years. That is a pretty strong anomaly.
So, we may have a test case. Something to think about going forward.
If it happens, it’s not like the hints were not there. They always are if one looks.