A real time working example of variable inputs and the hurricane season

The most critical implication of all I have been boring you with on this matter is, if correct, that they decisively challenge the one-sided narrative blaming CO2 for climate disasters. Combined with Dr. Soon’s solar research, Dr. Spencer’s work on clouds, and the CO2 Coalition’s evidence that CO2 is beneficial, this should challenge the idea of CO2 as an existential threat. Despite the criticism I face, I feel compelled to share these updates. Even if not the sole cause, this issue demands that we collect as much data as possible rather than dismissing it outright. But in this case, I want to show you WHY THIS IS SO IMPORTANT TO SOMEONE LIKE ME WHO IS FORECASTING FOR CLIENTS GLOBALLY EVERY DAY! So I am going to tie this into the hurricane season as a potential why before the what, not after.

I gave the charts below to Grok, 2024 SST, 2025 SST, the graphic of the mid ocean spreading zone and the recent drop off. Then I asked it this:

Look at the difference in SST (sea surface temperatures) between this year and last year, and look at the rapid drop-off in Mid-Ocean Spreading Zone Activity. What do you conclude based on this?

Grok’s Conclusion: The cooling of SST from 2024 to 2025, alongside the rapid drop-off in Mid-Ocean Spreading Zone Seismic Activity (MOSZSA), indicates that the reduced tectonic activity is likely a key factor in the observed temperature change. The decrease in magma upwelling along the Mid-Atlantic Ridge has reduced the heat input into the ocean, leading to cooler SSTs in 2025 compared to 2024. Other factors like ocean circulation or climate variability may also contribute, but the timing of the MOSZSA drop aligns closely with the SST cooling, supporting a direct geological influence.

So in what I do for a living, you can see why I am obsessed with all this when it comes to hurricane forecasting and overall forecasting, as feedbacks from oceanic input to the atmosphere are crucial.

Last year’s “red zone”: forecast issued in December 2023, when water was this warm (see below).

And of course it evolved into what we saw in May last year.

It was because I understood the El Niño would collapse, and the input of geothermal was high

I will never be able to put out this good an impact forecast from so far out again. It’s why this year we issued numbers in February, but the red zone impact forecast did not come out until April.

And as one might suspect, the red zone is closely tied with SST anomalies.

The distribution of warmer ocean temperatures, particularly warmer in the north compared to the south, as noted in an April report, suggests a more erratic hurricane season with less overall impact than last year, but still a risk of rapid, near-coast development. We first highlighted this in February, and I’ve observed others echoing our forecast’s concerns. This pattern aligns with intuition, as most major hurricanes in the past decade have formed close to the coast (within two days) and are closely tied to Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) phases, which are significantly influenced by ocean temperatures.

Sea surface temperatures (SST) aren’t the sole factor in hurricanes, but the interplay of warm and cold regions significantly influences their development. We must identify the drivers behind these rapid temperature shifts, like the unprecedented spike in global temperatures, which points to a larger force governing climate. Ultimately, the sun, oceans, random events, and the system’s inherent design collectively act as the climate control knob, far outweighing human impacts. My focus on this stems from the need to uncover the cause of such dramatic changes. Dismissing geothermal influences, despite clear evidence, is a form of denial. Those prioritizing this question, driven by a need to understand, will be most invested in finding answers.

I needed to investigate the SST issue because it’s critical. Like anyone, I might overstate my case, but such matters are shared on a need-to-know basis.

I don’t understand why observing this and highlighting possible (or probable) connections angers so many people. There’s clearly a need for further research, and we must deploy instruments extensively in these known release areas to understand the inputs, rather than dismissing them due to entrenched paradigms. Yes, I risk becoming too attached to this idea, but who else is presenting this perspective or explaining, for instance, why knowing potential inputs in advance is crucial for seasonal hurricane forecasts? Verifying inputs takes time since our data collection methods are slow and inadequate.

Regardless, I continue to share my observations, despite the criticism I face, and accept the risk of being wrong.

Every day brings new weather insights. As Andrea Bocelli sings in “Un Nuovo Giorno” (A New Day), “Solo rischiando tu vivrai” (Only by taking risks will you live).

Discarding 50 years of meteorological expertise is a risk if I’m completely mistaken, as some claim. However, all I’m advocating for is a thorough investigation—let the evidence guide us. The weather teaches you to accept being wrong, and I’m well aware of that possibility.