I have been highlighting the retreat of cloud cover in tropical regions for the past 10 years and recently considered geothermal spreading as a significant contributing factor in the source region. However, this retreat may be a byproduct of the warming, not the cause, although it is now certainly exacerbating the warming.
It is widely accepted that total solar irradiance plays a major role in climate. An examination of this shows an increase that began around the same time as the sudden warming (over the last 30-35 years in the oceans).
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Rising with it is the chart I have shown many times. This chart shows the increase in geothermal input PRECEDING the warming.
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Recall the idea suggesting that the increase in geothermal activity is due to stresses placed on the Earth by the reversal of the exosphere (the molten core of the Earth).
You can read more about it here: https://theethicalskeptic.com/tag/core-exothermic-cycle/.
It is entirely possible that the two are connected, and perhaps the sun and planetary alignments, which alter gravitational pull, are causing this forcing. If you focus on the sun, you might attribute it to total solar irradiance (TSI). Most people dismiss geothermal influences because we lack sufficient real-time data to confirm it as a major cause. We also lack the data to confirm it is not. Yet, it appears to be increasing close to the TSI.
However, as I have demonstrated numerous times, until this shift occurred, the change in sea surface temperature (SST) was not particularly significant from 1951 to 1990. Then, it accelerated, accompanied by an increase in water vapor input into the air and subsequent warming.
This warming could be causing a reduction in clouds in areas receiving the most incoming solar radiation, particularly where it matters most—the tropical oceans. Over the last 10 years, outgoing longwave radiation has become dominant around landmasses in the tropics and has decreased over the tropical oceans.
But that seems counter intuitive unless we understand that we need increased vertical velocities where it’s warm to cause cloud formation.
If we examine temperatures over the last 10 years…
we notice the greatest warming near the poles, where sea level pressures have lowered most.
Sea level pressures have also lowered in the eastern Pacific and around Central America. They have also risen away from the tropics in the Pacific which means stronger easterlies, a La Niña base state, and MJOs (Madden-Julian Oscillations) favored in phases that are linked to warming. There is now more outgoing long-wave radiation in the major tropical areas of the Atlantic, Pacific, and Western Indian Ocean, with decreases (more clouds) over SE Asia and Africa. The change is startling over the tropics. The blue represents less cloudiness. The top image is 1951-1960. The bottom image is 2012-2022.
Why is this happening? Consider this: when sea-level pressures shift—lower at the poles, higher in the temperate zones of both hemispheres—what does it mean for global wind patterns? They reweave into something different from the norm. And what does that do to vertical velocity patterns? It distorts the atmosphere’s energy budget. Yes, a warmer world might hold more energy, but it’s distorted, stretched out. This disruption weakens the usual vertical motion over tropical oceans, thinning cloud cover and amplifying warming.
A study that deserves far more attention nails this dynamic: MDPI Study.
This is precisely what I’ve been trying to articulate about distorted warming. I see it firsthand: fewer long-tracked, monstrous storms; instead, compact, intense systems forming farther north. The evidence shows that.
If the Hadley cell expands, the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) loses its focus. Upward motion spreads out, diluting precipitation patterns. Fewer clouds form, and outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) spikes. Over the past decade, rising OLR over tropical oceans hints at a weakened or broadened ITCZ. Other factors—ocean temperature shifts, atmospheric circulation changes—may play a role, but this mechanism fits like a glove.
This aligns perfectly with what you’re observing.
For more, check out this talk: CERES at the Heritage Foundation Symposium.
You have 3 large natural drivers now that are stacking the deck for warming: TSI, geothermal, and the result of the warming, fewer clouds in the big bang for the buck areas.
You can see the change in the global pattern by looking at the dominance of negative ENSO events since the great El Niño of 1997-1998.
This is due to stronger easterlies over the tropical Pacific, which are being caused by Asian and Western Pacific warming. I have flogged this horse many times in previous posts.
As we continue to examine natural forcings, it becomes increasingly likely that their cumulative effect diminishes the impact of human-induced inputs. It is evident that CO2 is not the primary driver of climate but rather a minor contributor compared to the major natural forces that have always shaped weather and climate.
When we consider the basic definitions of weather and climate—nature’s attempt to correct imbalances inherent in a system it cannot fully stabilize—it becomes intuitive that human influence on the chaotic climate system is limited. However, some livelihoods depend on promoting an agenda that attributes climate change primarily to human activity and demands compliance with specific solutions.