The Raging Inferno in the Southwest (let me get that out of the way, so it can’t be said I am playing it down) is real and spectacular.

All-time early records are being set. But let’s also remember, we have had in the United States some record swings from warm to cold, also. So yes, March has been a wild month. But March should be wild. It’s when the stubborn winter fights tooth and nail against the advancing summer. And it’s not done yet, because I expect some wild weather in April, which may include a total flip in the pattern by mid and late month.

There are a lot of wild things going on in the background, so one would expect a wild result.

But I want to put this in perspective.

The month of March so far globally is the COOLEST since 2021. Still .33 °C above the 30-year mean, but well below the past 4 years.

You can easily see how much we have dropped off since the big El Niño and Tonga input of WV.

Let’s look at this chart. The dark lines are mine, not Dr. Roy’s, so if you disagree with my assessment, don’t blame Dr. Roy. (That’s Dr. Roy Spencer, but he is such a legend to me, he is just Dr. Roy.) They represent the step-up function of temperature, the result of strong El Niños.

The super El Niño of 97-98 had the first step up. It also marked the change in the base state of the ENSO, where La Niña responses, which try to fight warmth, showed up more than the El Niños. A lot of people believe La Niñas are a cooling mechanism, and they are relative to the warmth that precedes them. But if there is a cumulative buildup of heat, each El Nino simply releases more heat. Hence, the step-up function, and the response to the El Niños by La Niñas.

You can plainly see there are more La Niñas now than El Niños. Then, why is it warming? Because the La Niñas are in response to the warming. They are band aids on a wound that due to increased geothermal input,

solar considerations, and the lack of clouds in the tropics due to distorted warming has warmed the air. (More in the north than around the equatorial oceans, especially the tropical Pacific, we can show that by looking at how much COOLER it was in the decade before the geothermal impact started.)

I have to do it this way, because we are using 30-year means since 1991. So, let’s show where it’s cooler than those means before, and we can see where the warming is greatest — in the North Pacific, not the tropical central and eastern Pacific. So, what happens is, where it warms, sea level pressures lower and if it’s warming to the west and north of the tropical Pacific, there is a tendency for more easterlies over the tropical Pacific (enhanced easterlies mean La Ninas.) The cooling off of the west coast of South America is because if you have stronger easterlies to the northwest, it means there has to be upwelling there. Notice the North Atlantic also. You have a distorted pattern relative to what it was before, so feedback must be different. Little warming in the tropics, with more warming to the north, would mean that relative to the entire system, tropical vertical-velocity patterns weaken, as supported by observations of a weakened Hadley cell. Makes perfect sense if you look at the weather. And if the vertical velocities are weakened and spread out, there are fewer clouds in the tropics. Means more incoming solar radiation gets in and contributes to warming.

All the while, CO2 input has been at a steady pace since the 1950s, when bands were saturated, so why should its impact be the cause of warming now, when we have obvious natural inputs that should be considered?

Of course, with a strong El Niño coming on, pushers of man-made climate change and the warming are drooling — which amazes me since if they know it’s the El Niño that will push the temperatures up, it can’t be their God CO2 doing it. At the very least, the so-called global temperature, which is a lousy metric compared to wet bulbs and water vapor, is obviously a step of up function of stronger El Niño events, and in the last one, Tonga WV injection was added. If one understands there has been cumulative heat buildup in the ocean, which is seen nicely with the geothermal input aspect, then El Niños are a way of releasing that heat.

The climate hysteria crowd are such a bunch of hypocrites. If you really want to shut down CO2 input from man, build nuclear power plants. How are you a slave to an aging radical actress mentality (Jane Fonda and her China Syndrome nonsense)? It’s 2025 for goodness’ sake, and this is the United States. And if they really wanted to track down the source, they would quantify water vapor — which HAS A DIRECT CORRELATION TO TEMPERATURE THAT EVERY METEOROLOGIST IN THE COUNTRY SHOULD KNOW ABOUT — and immediately understand why that is so important in not only quantifying the warming, but the where and why of it.

What happens when you throw water on hot coils in a sauna? Well, it’s a blast of heat in your face, but when the air dries out, it leaves a higher temperature. One of our wrestling coaches (we sit in the sauna after practice) has gotten the temperature in the sauna 13 degrees higher than the thermostat setting. When he first got here, we would see who could get it the highest. And then see who could stay in the longest (not the team, NCAA rules do not allow athletes to sit in the sauna). We are a competitive ilk, and a bit weird, but he never threw CO2 on it, did he?

As Grok puts it:

in the context of injecting a large amount of water vapor (moisture) into the atmosphere at a given temperature, once significant condensation occurs, the system does establish a new equilibrium, and that new state is warmer than before.

So, what they do is dodge the true problem with straw men. Let’s shut down CO2. Fine, then build nuclear power plants and plant trees, and the global CO2 sinks will reach an equilibrium. But no. Let’s quantify water vapor. Nope, just CO2. How do people not see through this? It’s not about the weather or climate; it’s a completely different source region that has nothing to do with climate and weather and everything to do with all the other stuff that is going on today.

But now to the problem at hand, the lack of showing the whole picture.

Let’s look at North America this past week, when the records started going wild in the southwest.

Look closely at the maximum, minimun, and average.

Isn’t that special? The minimum had a higher deviation than the maximum, and the average has been below normal for North America while all this has been going on. You can be darn sure if it was happening in Alaska, they would be touting it — they love to tout when Alaska is warm (not this year; one of their coldest winters in the past 40 years, and crickets). But again, they will not show you the entire picture.

I do.

And next week, look at temps:

Winter in the Northeast, summer in the Southwest. March, in all its glory — except that it’s testing limits both ways that were inherent in a winter where it was said there were many big things on the table, way back on August 29th.

Is the weather getting more extreme? Well, one thing the weather is always going to do is test limits. The Sauna Effect I described is at work, so with more water vapor, inherent to the system is its ability to see what you are seeing. BUT THERE IS A COUNTERBALANCE GOING ON. And people who are screaming about the heat to make points about it will not show the entire picture. But you can put all the CO2 in the air you want from now till whenever, and it’s not the driver. It’s obviously water vapor. And all one needs to do is sit in the sauna, throw water on the coils, and watch what happens when that water vapor runs its course

The very fact that they are drooling at the coming El Niño shows the hypocrisy of all this, since it admits it’s nature, not man, that is controlling the climate. If the average person would pay attention, they would realize they are cutting down their own argument.