Sunspot trends suggest global cooling may be ahead

By |2014-08-28T19:00:09+00:00August 25th, 2014|CFACT Insights|4 Comments

Some recent study results linking shifts in sunspot frequency and climate changes over thousands of years suggest that the past 18-year-long period of flat global temperatures may be a prelude to a much longer cooling cycle. 

sunspotsWhile causes behind these magnetic vacillations are uncertain, observable connections between solar and Earth climate patterns are clear. Reduced periods of sunspot activity correlate with cooler and very cold periods, with higher incidences producing opposite effects.

If a leading theory regarding why this occurs is correct, a weaker magnetic heliosphere surrounding our Solar System evidenced by low sunspot activity permits more cosmic rays from deep space to enter Earth’s protective magnetosphere and atmosphere. This increased flux of heavy electrons— or “muons” — striking the atmosphere produces increased cloud cover, in turn reflecting more solar radiation away from Earth and back to space. 

Since none of this has anything to do with human-caused atmospheric CO2 emissions, you can bet that the UN and its Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change are very cool on the theory and its chilling political science implications. It follows that since both the Sun and climate began changing billions of years before the Industrial Revolution, neither conditions can be blamed on fossil-fueled smokestacks and SUVs. 

A notable IPCC critic is Dr. Fritz Vahrenholt, a former leader of Germany’s environmental movement who also headed the renewable energy division of the country’s second largest utility company. He recently co-authored a book with Dr. fritzSebastian Luning titled, The Cold Sun: Why the Climate Disaster Won’t Happen

Although the two don’t deny that CO2 has some warming influence, they believe the Sun plays a far greater role in the whole scheme of things.

Dr. Vahrenholt expects the world to get cooler in the future for three reasons: (1) we are or soon will be beginning on the downward flank of the Sun’s Gleissberg and Suess cycles; (2) solar activity during the next cycle may extend our current very weak one; and (3) ocean cycles will be in cooling phases over the next decades as well. 

A research team in Sweden which analyzed patterns of solar activity at the end of the last Ice Age around 20,000 – 10,000 years ago concluded that changes in solar activity and their influences on climate are nothing new, especially on a regional level. An analysis of trace elements in ice cores in Greenland and cave formations from China revealed that Sweden was then covered by a thick ice sheet that stretched all the way down to northern Germany. 

Water contained in those frozen ice caps resulted in sea levels which were more than 100 meters lower than at present.

Furthermore, the August 2014 study report’s co-author Dr. Raimund Muscheler, a lecturer in Quaternary Geology at Lund University, observes: “Reduced solar activity could lead to colder winters in Northern Europe. This is because the Sun’s UV radiation affects the atmospheric circulation. Interestingly, the same processes lead to warmer winters in Greenland, with greater snowfall and more storms.”

While the Sun was exceptionally active during the 20th century, many scientists believe that this condition is now coming to an end. Although the Royal Observatory of Belgium’s July average monthly sunspot count increased slightly for the sixth straight month despite a rare mid-month spotless day, solar Cycle 24 still remains to be the weakest in 100 years. 

It is predicted that increased counts may continue for a few more months before activity once again begins to fade. In fact, long-term indicators suggest that the next sunspot cycle will be much weaker than this one. If so, as with other extended periods of inactivity as occurred during Cycles 3, 4, and 5 which marked the beginning of a “Dalton Minimum,” we can expect the past 18 years of flat global temperatures to become significantly cooler.

Dr. Habibiullo Abdussamatov, head of the Russian Academy of Sciences Pulkovo Observatory in St. Petersburg and iceagedirector of the Russian segment of the International Space Station, predicts that we may soon witness the coming of a new Little Ice Age with a deep freeze lasting throughout this century. The last one, which began in the mid-16th century, killed millions in Europe. It mercifully ended soon after Washington’s troops suffered brutal winter temperatures at Valley Forge in 1777 and Napoleon’s bitterly cold 1812 retreat from Russia.

Whether present cooling continues or not, is there any reason at all to panic? No, and by the same token if, for any reason, global warming resumes as it probably will along with following intermittent cool-downs, let’s remember to be grateful for the good times we now have the great fortune to enjoy.

This article first appeared at


  1. Milty August 25, 2014 at 11:03 PM

    A Warmist’s Lament

    Sometime in the future when you are old and gray you will be sitting on a park bench on a beautiful autumn day and realize that nothing much has really changed. The sun still rises in the east and sets in the west. It is still hot in the summer and cold in the winter. Some places are wet while others dry. The arctic ice is still there and polar bears continue to frolic. Coastal cities and island nations still exist and are thriving. Sure, over the years, there has been extreme weather events like always throughout history. You will then ponder what all the fuss was about. How could you have been so duped into thinking that something other than the sun, oceans and clouds drive the Earth’s climate and that man’s impact on it could barely register a blip.

  2. John Beasley August 31, 2014 at 11:04 AM

    I have always maintained that clouds act as a thermostat for the earth. When the sun heats up the earth, clouds form, and reflect the sun’s energy. The earth cools and the clouds go away. Repeat. The global warming alarmists mistakenly assume that the earth’s warmth comes from within and is trapped by the clouds the warmth creates. If that were the case, logic would dictate that more heat would create more clouds that would trap more heat, and there would be a never ending trend in a warmer direction, rather than the natural warming and cooling cycles. Either someone is incredibly stupid, or there is an agenda. Hmmmm.

    We are arriving at a point where enough time has elapsed to prove their models and predictions wrong. Question is, how long will it take politicians to come off their false claims that they used to support their agenda?

  3. Scottar September 8, 2014 at 11:45 PM

    Proxie studies show that the Earth was warmer during the intermittent climate optimums like during the Medieval Period. Climate alrmists shrilled about the Arctic ice disappearing leading to the Greenland ice collapse. They wailed about the West shelf breakup of the Antarctic leading to major instability of the land ice. Yet the ice is recovering, sea level rises have slowed not accelerated, glaciers are advancing.

    Perhaps it’s time we all stop listening to the Orwellian main-stream-media crap and tune in on the alternative websites like Cfact where the real truth can be found. The other mainstay for enviro is Every once in a while links or searches lead me to good articles on similar sites. The advantage I have is 30 years of listening and reading various media have lead me to the cream of the crop. The internet has greatly enhanced that.

    So when the government talks about the necessity of reforming the internet with a fairness act, DON”T LISTEN TO THE RATHOLES. And major internet providers would like to control what is now essentially free. Don’t take this freedom for granted or we’re all lost to big corporate oligarchy.

    By now it should be obvious that Obama is lying along with the establishment scientists, it might be for the money, while underlings are coerce, but for the ringleaders it may be for agenda 21.

  4. Dr Norman Page December 23, 2014 at 3:08 PM

    The probability is that the earth is entering a cooling trend that may last for the next 600 years or so.
    Section 1 of my post at

    concerns the inutility of the IPCC climate models for forecasting purposes. It concludes:
    “In summary the temperature projections of the IPCC – Met office models and all the impact studies which derive from them have no solid foundation in empirical science being derived from inherently useless and specifically structurally flawed models. They provide no basis for the discussion of future climate trends and represent an enormous waste of time and money. As a foundation for Governmental climate and energy policy their forecasts are already seen to be grossly in error and are therefore worse than useless. A new forecasting paradigm needs to be adopted.”

    Using a new forecasting paradigm ,the same post contains estimates of the timing and amplitude of the possible coming cooling based on the natural 60 and important 1000 year quasi-periodicities seen in the temperature data and using the 10Be and neutron data as the best proxy for solar “activity”.

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