Study: Climate models have been estimating rainfall incorrectly this whole time

Most global climate models are underestimating rainfall according to a study released Monday.

NASA and four universities compared climate data from 1995 to 2005 to 23 climate model simulations for the same period. More than 70 percent of the climate models underestimated the amount of rain compared to real world observations.

“Precipitation is vital to life on Earth and regional precipitation changes accompanying anticipated global warming could exert profound impacts on ecosystems and human society,” reads the study’s abstract, adding that “we infer that most CMIP5 models underestimate the hydrological sensitivity under global warming.”

The climate models that came closest to matching real world observations indicated that global warming will greatly increase rainfall in the future. Climate models in the study were underestimating rainfall because of the way they examined high altitude in the atmosphere. Global warming will mean fewer of these clouds, causing more rainfall.

Increasing global temperatures means that the air has more capacity to hold moisture from the oceans, leading to more rains in arid regions of the world. This is even true in the Earth’s driest regions, such as the Sahara desert. This means that extremely dry regions in Australia, California, Central Asia, Sinai and Southwestern Africa can all expect more rain.

Previous research found that global warming has increased average annual rainfall by between 1 to 2 percent per decade since 1950, in wet and dry areas alike. A climate scientists previously told The Daily Caller News Foundation that increasing rainfall would have beneficial environmental impacts for humanity.

This is the latest scientific study to show that nature is considerably more resilient to global warming than scientists suspected, and even the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change now believes that the evidence linking global warming to extinctions is sparse.

Despite this growing consensus, environmental groups still believe that plants and animals aren’t capable of adapting to changing temperatures, leading to mass extinctions and agricultural disruptions caused by global warming.

“One-fourth of the Earth’s species could be headed for extinction by 2050 due to climate change,” The Nature Conservancy claims. “Rising temperatures are changing weather and vegetation patterns across the globe, forcing animal species to migrate to new, cooler areas in order to survive.”

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This article originally appeared in The Daily Caller

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About the Author: Andrew Follett

Andrew Follett covers energy and the environment for the Daily Caller.

  • Immortal600

    Climate models are a joke.

  • John Chism

    I keep saying…I wish the Global Warming would hurry up and get here to make Earth Globally more Tropical weather. This over 18 year’s of stalled temperature of fractions of a degree change is bs. This is an Interglacial Period that is supposed to be getting hotter. But the Sun is not cooperating as it’s having a Solar Minimum that can cause another small Ice Age effect like the Little Ice Age that just ended around 1850. What this does is create more polar ice that traps the atmospheric water at the poles instead of raining around the Equator were most of our arid deserts are. This creates larger differences in temperatures at the Poles and the Equator that when they meet and mix cause stronger storm’s that cause more damages.

  • Denis Ables

    Actually, sustained “looking out our window” always shows you “climate change”, but, so what? That has very little to do with the term “climate change” as revised by the alarmist PR folks, to mean “anthropogenic caused climate change”.

  • Erik Newman

    Our best technology can barely predict the weather for a week. How can we expect these same clowns to predict the weather for anything longer. Which makes the entire climate change crap just plain trash

    • Eric Vosburgh

      but the climate modeling geniuses told me that weather and climate are two different things and you cannot equate one to the other … i found this weird as the thing called ‘weather’ is the short term record of the long term thing called ‘climate’ … however, i then drank the kool aid and i saw the light and stopped thinking for myself and just believed what the ‘experts’ told me to believe!

      on a serious note you are 100% correct to question the validity of models that are based on the same natural system. if weather models cannot work reliably over a short period of time then climate models cannot work over long periods of time. my professional life is based is based upon modeling natural systems and i can, and have, created pseudo-time series data sets and ran backward through the models to be sure that they were working properly. if one cannot do this then one is fooling oneself and lying (knowingly or unknowingly) to others with respect to their technical expertise!

      • Erik Newman

        I don’t pretend to be a climate scientist…like climate scientists pretend to do. I do know that something that can not be proven by scientific method is a theory not science. I do know that the EPA arbitrarily declared CO2 a threat to human existence without a peer review. Why did they circumvent scientists to declare something that “97% of scientists agree upon”? Wouldn’t it just be a formality?

        • Eric Vosburgh

          i believe that when people believe that they are morally superior that they do not feel the need to prove themselves, or more to the point that they are once the rules.

  • notesorotius

    How can it not rain when the warm/moist ocean air moves over cooler land? The atmosphere would eventually build up to over 100% relative humidity if it never rained? This reasoning is totally nonsense. It must be that the instruments used to measure the rainfall are incorrectly calibrated. If it is not raining, then where pray-tell
    is the rain? Under the bed with the boogeyman?

  • Belch99

    Seems the science isn’t settled.

  • Ron Gonshorowski

    What!!! You unbelievers, you are blasphemous people, I will have the Reverend Al Gore fly to your city and explain it to you.

    • Russ Wood

      Good! We could do with some more rain here! (Or snow, or whatever).

  • endofthewld

    Don’t worry about climate change. It is a money spinner for those who scare politicians into giving them more money for their pet projects and they will all be dead by the time all their predictions are proven wrong. The money will be gone, and the public will look back and wonder how they could have been so seriously fooled for so long. We all know the climate has changed over hundreds of thousands of years, with and without mankind, and it will continue to do so. The biggest lies are that CO2 is a pollution. It is not, it is an essential gas which plants need to survive and grow. What caused the ice ages in the past? What caused the warming for instance in the UK where they used to enjoy lovely weather and could grow grapes and make great wine when the Romans where there? Then why did it get cold again, so cold the Thames used to freeze over?
    So much common sense is being ignored because money is involved, and you, the taxpayer, are being stung by taxes and higher costs for absolutely no benefit at all.

  • Mark Kelly

    Climate models are a joke as they ignore the change in energy coming from the Sun. When Mars is getting warmer as well, it’s not the CO2. Our Temperatures started to be recorded right after the “Little Ice age” when it had been cooler for Centuries. It’s like staring in January and making projections that it would become warmer in May. ….The Democrat’s”Solutions” will only make the problems worse. Fix the problems at the source….