The one word hoax: “Will” versus “Might”

Climate change alarmism is based entirely on speculation, not on science. Alarmism per se is not a hoax, because people really believe it. But alarmism is driven by a repeated practice that is in fact a hoax. This common hoax is the presentation of speculative conclusions as though they were established scientific facts about the physical world.

The standard definition of a hoax is a deliberate deception that is intended to fool a lot of people. The scientists and journalists who falsely report speculations as facts know perfectly well what they are doing, which makes what they do a hoax.

Below is a clear and simple, recent example. By way of background, it comes from a federally funded scientific organization called US CLIVAR. The acronym CLIVAR is short for Climate Variability and Predictability Program. The overall CLIVAR program is actually a United Nations activity, which is also federally funded. Thus US CLIVAR is a component of UN CLIVAR.

Despite the name, CLIVAR does not study natural climate variability or the predictability of climate change. Like all UN climate science organizations, it has been completely captured by the alarmist movement.

According to their website, the US CLIVAR is run by an Inter-Agency Group (IAG) which includes program managers from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), the National Science Foundation (NSF), the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the Department of Energy (DOE), and the Office of Naval Research (ONR).

These are very alarmist federal science agencies, which routinely run the hoax of reporting speculation as established fact. The UN influence does not help. In fact CLIVAR is just one of a large number of alarmist activities run by the UN World Climate Research Program (WCRP). The US also funds the WCRP as well as participating in many of these activities. The US Agencies and the UN are in this climate alarmism game together.

Here is a perfect example of a simple hoax from the US CLIVAR Home page:

Climate change will drive more frequent and extreme summer heat waves in the western US by late the 2020s, the Great Lakes region by the mid-2030s, and in the northern and southern Plains by the 2050s and 2070s, respectively.”

They are reporting on their new study, titled “Emergence of a climate signal in US heat waves” by Hosmay Lopez et al. The US CLIVAR report is also written by Lopez.

Note the absurd use of “will” instead of more accurately saying that computer modeling suggests that it might. The authors are well aware that the output from a computer climate model is not a fact about the future, yet that is just how US CLIVAR and the lead researcher choose to put it.

We might call saying “will” instead of “might” in such cases a one word hoax. One little word is all it takes to turn pure speculation into a falsely stated pseudoscientific claim of truth. Modeling the distant future is not science; it is just speculation.

Lopez et al actually get it right in their journal article. The first sentence of their abstract says this:

Climate projections for the twenty-first century suggest an increase in the occurrence of heat waves.”

The cautious word “suggest” is scientifically correct for future looking climate model outputs. This is something that might or might not happen. It is not a fact about the future, just something suggested by a climate model.

This sort of hoax-generating reporting is everywhere we look, nor is it confined to climate change alarmism. Computer generated speculation reported as fact is a painfully widespread hoax.


About the Author: David Wojick, Ph.D.

David Wojick is a journalist and policy analyst. He holds a doctorate in epistemology, specializing in the field of Mathematical Logic and Conceptual Analysis.