Climate alarmists habitually issue predictions of doom and gloom that are either too vague or too far into the future to be tested. In a rare departure from this, alarmists have issued a prediction that can be tested within the next 30 years, or sooner. That may be too far in the future to prevent the mad hysteria currently gripping the establishment media and political discussion, but it is much more imminent than most alarmist predictions. Accordingly, we have a measuring stick for a hard line test for climate alarmism.

Last November, the federal government issued its fourth National Climate Assessment. The Assessment claims worsening summer heat will devastate the American farm belt. As observed by the Chicago Tribune, “Before mid-century, the report says, Midwest agricultural productivity will slip back to levels of the 1980s.”

Climate alarmists frequently claim global warming will cause crop failures and food shortages. The predictions, however, rarely come with a definitive date and an objective measuring stick. In this case, however, alarmists finally give us a measuring stick and are setting themselves up for failure.

Global crop production has been setting records on a near-annual basis as the planet continues its modest warming . Longer growing seasons, fewer frost events, and more atmospheric carbon dioxide are playing a role in this. Almost certainly, global crop production will not only fail to recede to 1980s levels, but will continue to set new records far into the future.

File the Assessment’s alarmist crop prediction away. Global crop production will have to begin a precipitous decline within the next 20 years to have any hope of meeting the Assessment’s prediction for 30 years from now. It won’t happen, and climate realists should be poised to call alarmists out on it.

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  • CFACT, founded in 1985 by Craig Rucker and the late (truly great) David Rothbard, examines the relationship between human freedom, and issues of energy, environment, climate, economics, civil rights and more.