Landfall with Dorian was over Hatteras, but what if the next two hit, what is that a sign of ? Nothing that has not happened before:
1955 Connie, Diane, then Ione
This appears to be lining the storm up next week and the week after, perhaps a tad bit further west than the above triumvirate because the MJO is forecasted into phase 8 which actually does not favor a recurve, but a southeast or eastern gulf hit:
The hit areas are in brown, Notice how it favors later development, something we emphasized in our pre-season forecast that these storms would reach max intensity away from the deep tropics this year
In 1955 Connie and Diane hit back to back within 10 days in August. Notice the 500 mb pattern for that stretch
Notice the forecasted pattern for next week, the big positive over the top and the trough way out in the Atlantic
So what can we conclude?
1) It would be more surprising to me if 1 or both of the storms we think are going to be around miss the US
2) If it happens, its because of a known pattern that I use to set these things up Last year Set up Florence on Sept 2, and set up Michael on Sept 16.
3) It’s not man caused for we saw it happen in 1955, In fact, the year before Carol, Edna and Hazel all showed up for 3 hits in one season on the east coast including 2 in New England within 12 days
4) The later days of the warm AMO in the 1950s had the frenzy similar to this, even more than it so far, Chances are we are heading back to that cycle in the coming decade ( cooler).
5) If this does what I think it is capable of, the weaponization of hurricanes will once again come front and center, Hopefully, objective readers of this understand before why all this is on the table. Simply look at the past. The examples are there
Wild things coming up next week and a bit beyond, Buckle up.