I have been watching the US generated climate model, the  CFSV2, for the last 8 years and the only time IT DID NOT BUST  was in 2012 when it correctly forecast record low sea ice image.gifbut that is child’s play compared to what it has this year. image.gifIf correct it would mean the weaponization of the arctic sea ice by the AGW pushers, that we all know would rise to a fever pitch. The fact that it usually forecasts too much ice and it got the last  record low correct, makes me think it is on to something, but then I started looking deeper.

Look at its forecast for the summer with temperatures:

Compare that to last year:

image.gif It was normal with some areas below.

Now consider this, the Arctic is warming, but almost exclusively in the winter season. The vast majority of the warming happened then. It is plainly seen by simply looking at the anomalies since 1958 from the Danish Meteorological Institute.

image.gifThe red line is summer temps, so it did forecast unprecedented summer warmth in the arctic.

Now lets look at another climate model, the European:

image.gifIt has no such thing.

Notice it has the warmer antarctic winter, as winters in the polar regions have been warmer that can’t be traced to co2 as we have no temperature/co2 correlation. We do have a water vapor-temperature correlation in the saturation mixing ratio charts. More water vapor is correlated with increased temperatures where it is very cold and dry. So, if there is an increase in water vapor due to cyclically warmed oceans.

The increase has a little effect where its quite warm, but a much bigger effect where it is very cold.  That shows up in the temperatures even in this very warm period.  An example is looking at the winter season in the 12 year period ending 2017. Where is there the most warming?  Well, you can see its the Arctic in its cold season.

image.gifNotice the warmth north of Scandinavia.  Now look at  the water vapor:

It is much greater in the tropics where slight increases in already very warm SST’s put a lot of water vapor into the air but have much less effect on temperatures (its already stiflingly warm and humid). That spreads out but the increase in temperatures is heavily titled toward the areas north of the Arctic Circle. Look at the  greatest increase, north of Scandinavia.  That is partly due to the warm cycle of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation which has much warmer water flowing into those areas. Again, a natural cyclical event.

Every summer Arctic Sea Ice is a big deal. I remind you there have been pronouncements on the ice cap melting that did not come true. Yet with this being an election year, the weaponization of climate and weather and especially arctic sea ice, will reach a fever pitch. The US generated climate model would throw more fuel on that fire.  The cause of where its warming and why its warming can be traced to the warmth of the oceans which store a lions share of the heat and co2 in the system. More water vapor and co2 are released if the oceans warm.  Mans’ contribution is only 25% of the .041% of the co2 in the system. The oceans are the big driver and though the sun is falling asleep so to speak, you are not going to overcome the warmth of the ocean with a couple of low sunspot cycles. The point is to make you aware that there is a model out there forecasting off the charts low ice.  My take is the euro will win out,  but its something to certainly keep an eye on, given such events are portrayed the way they are.

Author

  • Joe Bastardi is a pioneer in extreme weather and long-range forecasting. He is the author of “The Climate Chronicles: Inconvenient Revelations You Won’t Hear From Al Gore — and Others” which you can purchase at the CFACT bookstore.