First of all, I am thankful for people on the other side of the “phony” climate war as I call this, since many of the people involved have no idea what war really is. Yet fancy themselves as some kind of warrior out to save the planet. The chance to rebut them is great cause affording me a chance to expose their ignorance of facts and show the reader the why’s behind the what. Of which are perfectly natural, and have occurred before.

But remember, there are some honest brokers on the other side who have done great work and continue to do so. I want that made clear. I read what they say, I want to know what they say, and I have come to the conclusion that it’s a matter of attribution. (They put too much stock into CO2 as the climate control knob IMO, rather than all the other natural drivers that have controlled the climate since known records began.) Next you see the adaptation to all this, no matter what the cause.

There is a another group on the opposite side of the issue as I, who really have little knowledge of past weather and reveal that every time they say something about this. This is the bandwagon agenda driven train that see this as a weapon to eliminate the American pursuit of life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness. In some ways, this reprint from twitchy is a great classic examples:

https://twitchy.com/dougp-3137/2020/08/22/science-aoc-uses-possibility-of-2-hurricanes-in-gulf-at-same-time-to-mock-those-who-think-green-new-deal-goes-too-far/

Now first of all, in reality there were no 2 hurricane hits. Marco fell apart completely (explain that, was it climate change?). Laura was in the EXACT PATTERN WE OUTLINED IN APRIL AND SAID TO LOOK OUT FOR THIS YEAR. We said so with the map below, the tendency this year, for storms to intensify close to the US. This impact map came out on April 7. The yellow dots are tropical storm landfalls, the red hurricanes, the blue, the recent major hurricane Laura. You can see where we were taking the storms that would pile up the ACE index.

Do you think for one second, the people pushing the climate change missive had any idea, due to simple linkage to previous seasons and what has so far been a correct assessment of the natural drivers to cause this, back in April? Anyone can say 20 storms or 10 storms or whatever, but where are they going to go? This is what my job is because I have people that pay me to give them an edge, so making willy nilly statements about climate change causing something is not of interest to them, what is of interest to them are the metrics that affect their business.

In addition, I saw no mention from these warriors of the Madden Julian Oscillation’s effect on all this. Do they realize that with the exception of Isaias all of the storms this year have hit in phases 8, 1, 2 or 3?

Even Isaias developed in 3. If its just “warm water” then why is the western Pacific (even though a major typhoon is going to hit soon there) at 25% of average and that is where over 50% of the global tropical cyclone activity occurs?! That is also correlated with a higher than average Atlantic season and we knew both were on the the table. Isn’t it a good thing that multiple major typhoons have not devastated the far East yet? Does the person tweeting this know that Harvey, Michael, and Laura all developed in the same overall pattern of the MJO (phase 2) and that well before, there were people forecasting these to be majors, when they were weak and no one was paying attention?. Does the person understand that storms like Camille and the 1935 Labor Day hurricane all intensified rapidly within 2 days of land, and they are number 2 and number 1 as far as landfall intensity goes?.

So we did not have 2 hurricanes hit the gulf in a period of a couple of days, 1 was bad enough but it took 11 days for Laura to finally get to where it could “explode”. Why not before, if all this warm water is causing this mayhem? And why, thru this writing, are we nearing the end of a decade with the least major hits on the US on record? 2 in the Gulf at once? In 1933,  a major hurricane hit S FLA on Sept 4, and 18 hours later another one hit South Texas. Just look at this map, This is hard to believe even happened.

TWO MAJORS! In 1955 2 hurricanes, Connie and Diane hit the NC coast within 5 days of each other.

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Aug 12, 1955 1:30 A.M.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Aug 17, 1955 1:30 A.M.

At last look, that is a smaller area further north than the Gulf coast.

The year before. 2 in New England, Carol Aug 31st

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Here is Carol early afternoon Aug 31 over New England after driving 12 feet of water into Providence Rhode Island

But I am grateful for these people, for in rebuttals like this, I also get to explain the why’s behind it. My take is that there are aspects of the warming that are beneficial because the warming is distorted, no matter what the cause, and its leading to a) less long tracked storms reaching the US at their peak likely due to changes in global pressure patterns spreading out the heat, b) Something like we are seeing the WPAC, that even though we are getting a big typhoon now, the season has been amazingly quiet (the east PAC is below average also, C) The MJO is more amplified which as a forecast tool, means we are getting better hints in the longer term. Already we are forecasting a warm winter in the east and south because of where we think the MJO will be. This very important tool is a key to making better forecasts and a side benefit is if its more amplified, it can be better linked.

BTW if we are thinking globally, are not things like the lack of devastating typhoons in repetitive fashion, or even warm winters though snow lovers hate it, good things? Look at the economic hits and misery both things cause. Really I keep hearing global this and global that, well if you are shut down in one place, another picks it up and the crucial ACE index, the metric by which we measure global tropical activity IS NOT GOING UP.

However, there are grievances that people on my side of the AGW issue are not going to like. I am tired of people assuming the National Hurricane Center is hyping every event. I have never seen them make a forecast that is not an objective evaluation of the situation in front of them. I do understand why, given NOAA and NASA statements on climate change, people would think their agencies would follow along but I have seen no evidence of that in the forecasting, and as most people know, given I am an issue by issue person. I have disagreed with them before. So when I hear some of the criticism when something is not as bad, and then I hear its because of an agenda, I have to speak up.

Lets say this evil conspiracy to hype everything is worth consideration. What good does it do, when it doesn’t turn out that way? This is not a leftist zealot just saying something they nothing about, and just gets the headlines no one calls them on when they are wrong. (Mainly because the media picks it up and run with it) NHC has people that live eat and breathe this stuff and given I am the same way. Even older than most of the people working there, I have a good idea on what drives them to nail forecasts, and it is not a political agenda.

Granted, for the people that follow the merchants of manmade mayhem of climate change, they just go their own way, don’t say boo (Which is why this opened with the first grievance, cause I do call them out) when they are wrong. They simply get their point out, no matter what and no calls them on it. If you do call them out, you are demonized. But if you are forecasting for a living, or you are not only in charge of hitting a forecast but part of the necessary safety that that provides for the common security of the nation, there is no way you want a forecast to be wrong.

The idea of an unsurvivable storm surge is being used as an example of this. The forecast was made based on the data, model output and past storms of the same intensity. When it fell short, the howls started, which was interesting to me given I don’t know too many people that if 11-14 feet of water, which it wound up being, and then pile on top of that waves to 50 feet on the coast, got caught, would survive. Just let me assure you, and this is from someone, me, who has been a thorn in the side of NHC for many years but has a lot of respect for that organization and just thinks that after all these years and the freedoms we are still allowed, I can disagree from time to time.

THERE IS NO CLIMATE CHANGE BIAS IN THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IN THEIR FORECASTS. They are above board, they want to nail it, just like I do, and I don’t let my ideas on that get in the way, and neither do they.

Above all, there are honest people on the other side of the issue. I don’t think people attacking the many great people on my side of the issue are right in doing that. But I also know there are people I don’t agree with that I have always found to be above board, on the other side, again mainly people that have to make the right call in what they do. So that is far different from the opening example, and I could offer countless more, that is simply using this for their own agenda.

So disagree with the hurricane center or storm prediction center or whoever you want, but their motives are to nail the forecast. I have watched this since I was a kid and the bottom line is no one wants to be wrong, especially if bias is what does it. If I downplay an event, it is because of what I see. (My bias has been the other way, quite frankly I love the challenge of extreme events the further out, the better. I have 2 sayings “Enjoy the weather it’s the only weather you got”, and my mission statement, “I look for trouble and supply the forecast for it”) So when I see jibberish with no basis in knowledge of what has happened and what is perfectly capable of happening. I am going to say something.

Now that I have gotten that off my chest, though early, Happy Festivus everyone!

Authors

  • CFACT -- We're freedom people.

  • Joe Bastardi is a pioneer in extreme weather and long-range forecasting. He is the author of “The Climate Chronicles: Inconvenient Revelations You Won’t Hear From Al Gore — and Others” which you can purchase at the CFACT bookstore. His new book The Weaponization of Weather in the Phony Climate war can be found here. phonyclimatewar.com