Meteorology needs to search its soul, one lover of weather at a time

Bob Dylan is right. You are going to serve someone. But it is your choice. Do you serve what you have gratitude for, or to an idea that you are being asked to accept and not question?

On a clear, calm winter night, have you noticed how low the temperature gets?  With no clouds in the sky, the lower levels cool, so it gets cold.

On the same kind of calm night with clouds, what happens? It does not get as cold.

Why not? Clouds prevent the processes allowing the lower levels to cool. In fact, a fun game to play if you have clouds under 3k feet is to estimate the temperature at the base of the cloud. (It’s fun to me because I am a complete nerd.) If it is cloudy with no wind, it’s usually pretty close to the temperature at the base of the cloud.

Now what about a sunny summer day with no wind? Gets hot, right? What if it is cloudy? It is not as hot.  Why would it be cloudy? More water vapor without an increase in temperatures in the levels where clouds form.

So in the summer, more water vapor where it is quite hot normally leads to a decrease in MAX  temperatures. In the cold season, the opposite is true, especially in minimum temperatures.

Look at the max temps for the last ten years in August. High temperatures over the places with the highest “heat indexes” have been lowering!

Here is 1952-1954

So water vapor tends to even out temperatures when there are increases. Warmer areas will have lower temperatures at the warmest times of the year, and colder areas have higher temperatures at the coldest time of the year. That should be intuitive to a meteorologist and climatologist, given saturation mixing ratios. The fact that it rains more means once away from the boundary layers, in precipitation-producing levels, the rate of increase of temperature is not enough to limit the condensation rates, another hint as to how limited CO2 has to be. We have no such relationships for CO2!!!

http://www.atmo.arizona.edu/students/courselinks/fall12/atmo336/lectures/sec1/Saturation_Mixing_Ratio_Tables.htm

You can see very tiny increases where it’s extremely cold, which correlates to a lot of warming.

Now watch this.

Before the super nino 2015

Notice that temps in the arctic areas since then show that every year is at or below average at the height of the warmest time of the year.

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

current

EVERY SUMMER!

What have arctic winters done?

They have obviously warmed. The increase in Water Vapor (WV) leads to more clouds when it’s very cold, thus causing warming.

The Data scream it loudly: There is no summer warming while winters are warmer, and this being factored into global temperatures is skewing the temperatures. The Antarctic winter has similar responses.

I agree with my CAGW antagonists that the Arctic is the “canary in the coal mine”. Unfortunately, it is not singing their tune. And the antics of the ocean are exposing them. Look at that winter warming. Now look at geothermal spreading and the increase in SSTs.

Again because it has to be noted and noted and noted again.

It is not an accident. It’s not something that should be ignored. Doing so is using Hunter Biden’s Laptop Science.

So how can you possibly ignore this unless the same kind of deception, distortion, and delusion that we see in other matters, has invaded science?  The bulk of the warming is in the coldest, driest areas in their winter seasons. Not only does the lack of warming in the summer when the average temperature is barely above 32 trash the ice melt theory (you can say it won’t increase as much in the winter, but it is limited in its summer melting if it is not getting warm), but it points the finger at WV ( as it should be) not CO2. What is warming the oceans? How one does not look at the geothermal spreading and not see it LEADS  the warming is beyond me. Or ignores it. If it’s ignored, it is only because it would question the whole man-made warming message. This would question the Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) agenda and expose it for what it is and what many skeptics believe. The warming is mainly, if not exclusively, natural, and man has very little to do with it.

Again its linkage linkage linkage!!!  Distort temp patterns, and you distort vertical velocities.   More warming in the north overall leads to less convergence relative to averages over the tropics. This leads to more incoming solar radiation, and hence more outgoing Long wave radiation; it adds to oceanic warming, which in turn continues to propel the temperature.

Please see this:

https://www.cfact.org/2023/07/14/the-temperature-may-prove-it-is-not-co2/

I am NOT out to save the world, my country, or whatever.  I have decided I can not be anyone’s hero, but I can do what God made me to do. If that involves questioning, then so be it; as Proverbs 25:2 says, its the glory of God to conceal a matter, to search it out the glory of kings.  As far as my country, the lame response of people in power in this matter who are asleep at the switch as the left pushed this to b brink, leaves them without an excuse. They simply did not care or kept quoting small percentages of people that believed it. Oblivious to history that small bands of zealots turned nations into despotic regimes, or that small percentages can tip elections. So I can not change that, but I can speak up so people perhaps wake up. What I do not understand is how a meteorologist or climatologist can look at this and simply dismiss it out of hand. My gosh, do you realize CO2 NEEDS WARMING TO CAUSE WARMING? It does not initiate it. It is not a heat-trapping gas, but radiative considerations depending on OUTGOING, NOT INCOMING, LONG WAVE RADIATION, lead to the idea it can warm the planet. The argument should be over attribution levels. It’s not my way or the highway. But think. THE SAME REASONING YOU USE FOR CO2, IT IS INCREASING, SO IT IS WARMING, MUST BE APPLIED TO GEOTHERMAL. The problem is for one that physically, it is far more likely to result in changes in input that result in what you are seeing, and for another, it is the DRIVER of any CO2-induced warming.  Big PRIMARY  drivers, not secondary reactionary features, are needed to warm the oceans.

I keep pushing this because we have to wake up for the sake of the souls of meteorology and climatology.  If we find after soul searching, and I mean questioning authority with an open mind, it’s still man-made, fine. But when you simply do as you are told and do not question anything, who are you selling your soul to? People who do not share your love, but look at our field as something to simply push their agenda.

Saving the planet should not be your goal. Finding the answer to what the atmosphere is asking you should be. That is what a forecast is, answering the question, no matter where it takes you.

Think about years from now. If you looked and questioned, you have done what anyone that would defend something they love would do. If not, then what the Apostle Paul said comes to mind, like so many things we are finding out: “Those who know what they know don’t yet know what they ought to know.”

I will quote Gen  Lewis Armistead at Gettysburg, “if you do not look at all there is, what will you think of yourself tomorrow?”