We set this forecast up at the end of last winter. It came out in August, and this is the update.
When you read, notice all the other ideas brought up rather than “It’s El Nino, and this is what happens”. Much more than that. We also forecast actual temperatures, not probabilities, or avoid adjectives such as low, cold and wet, warm and dry. Those carry a degree of subjectivity. You can look at this and see the actual temperatures in relation to average and snow amounts as a percentage of average. For instance, for Washington, which averages. 16 inches of snow at Reagan, the November to March period has 20-26 inches of snow and is 3 below normal.
I want to add this statement which we gave our clients this weekend:
The period from December 1, 2023, to December 1, 2024, could be one of the most impactful 366-day periods on record. I expect many El Niño-driven storms this year to plague the Gulf Coast and the East Coast, some of which are liable to be quite strong. Not only would that warrant concern about wind and tidal flooding on the coast, but heavy rain in the interior will also be a factor. The reversal of the El Niño to a La Niña for next year means a hurricane season from hell could be on the way, with the highest threat areas resembling a devious blend of 2005, 2017, 2020, and 2021.
This is not climate change; it is the natural ebb and flow of the weather. we had virtually no winter on the East Coast last year ( Jan-Feb and Dec were cold). Well, it’s the opposite look this year. There was virtually no hurricane season around the Caribbean and Gulf (Idalia was an exception). Next year may look like a road map.
So, a heads up. Let’s see how it turns out.