Has anyone stopped to think that with the screaming and yelling about the global temperature spike, the biggest freak show of the year is having a record-low number of named Typhoons? To make that out-of-this-world extreme, it’s DURING AN EL NINO. Those are the most active years for typhoons. It is an off-the-chart deviation.
From a forecasting point of view, this should really make you question the prowess of the global effect of this El Nino outside of contributing to temperature pumping along with last year’s volcano via increased Water Vapor (WV). But the atmospheric response the meteorology should have the field wondering, just what the heck is going on here?
The strong El Ninos, if indeed they are strong (and this one by many measures is not, as far as reactive weather goes), but in terms of how warm the water is in one of the NINO measuring areas, are the biggest years.
This year:
But look at 2015
or 1997
Just why should this concern you? Well, if you are all about the end of the world due to a climate catastrophe, it is one thing to have 3 straight near-record low production seasons with a La Nina, but with an El Nino shows there are counterweights going on. It said climate change costs the US. 150 billion dollars last year, and I cannot figure out how someone can come up with that figure unless they decide to cherry-pick every event as climate change. Well, how much did the same climate change save the country with the warm winter last year? And guess what if it’s as cold as I think it can be this year, with the inflation that has occurred? (My electric bills are doubled over what they were 3 years ago) That Band-Aid is getting ripped off the scab this year. So, will that be climate change, too?
But for the meteorologist or weather lover out there, how come no full-blown dissection of the extremity of this and what it is signaling, given how important that area of the world is for source region weather? The major meteo-media outlets? I wonder if they are even looking. Certainly, the weather channel, instead of promoting books of climate change poetry, might want to offer an opinion on an unprecedented event. Or maybe the WAPO climate writers. I doubt it. It will go right to the heart of what questioning people like me have been saying. The warming is distorted, driven by water vapor, and the changes that are occurring are natural signs of a feedback fightback, the same as increasing snow in the NHEM. And if that increase in heat into the ocean reverses, it would get colder really quickly.
Not only may it play a big role in this winter as to the dissection of the true result of this nino (it goes with the MEI), but certainly should raise questions, given the spike in global temperature, as to what the true source is. The added input this year is not man’s contribution, that is a steady state and is 5% of the total CO2 in the atmosphere. But a huge underwater volcano and an El Nino in the ONI regions are pumping plenty of WV into the pattern but are competing with all the other warmth around it as far as reactive weather is certainly the hint about what the real source is of all this:
It is amazing how there is any debate as to what is causing the spike, just hysteria about the hottest ever and we have a climate emergency. Look at the reversal in the Nino region and the Indian Ocean The oceans are warm all around, but those anomaly reversals alone in such warm water would spike the temperature. Throw in last year’s volcano, and my gosh, what, do you think is going to happen? It exposes the answer to the entire shooting match when you look at the cumulative build-up, again the increase PRECEDING the warming showing a strong case for causation,
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the reactive strong nino spikes that respond,
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but a major shift in the global reactions to weather patterns that have been evolving and clearly show up on the MEI since the 1997 Super Nino.
We have to stop thinking La Ninas and the cold Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) are cooling events in this day and age. They are Le Cheteliar-type reactions in an attempt to reset the equilibrium that then has to respond again. A cumulative buildup of heat demands a reactive El Nino. That is why I was all over this thing at the end of last winter. You could see what was coming (and you will see it go fast), and it had to migrate west because the base state of the atmosphere is a La Nina now. Which makes sense. If overall the West Pac and Asia are warming, what happens to the global wind oscillation? The El Nino comes, supplies the step-up response, and then goes. But its ability to impact has changed due to all the warming around it. At the very least, I am getting this tested now, but many of the aspects that are largely ignored that are proof of this are falling into line. Knowing that may be the reason I have a shot at this winter. Coming off the El Nino, I think we have the hurricane season from hell next year, and we could have a cold first-year La Nina winter, but the longer the Nina runs, the more the disasters we see like last year will show up. So you see, all this behind-the-scenes stuff I do that is largely ignored (the underwater volcanos) has led to a basic movie of the weather that I can see out further with. But if I just smiled and nodded and did not do this (it’s out of love), perhaps I would not see it.
It is important, in my opinion.
So ignore the West Pac freak show, right? Pay no attention to the extreme event the other way. That is their attitude I suspect we will see a couple more, but it is still an off-the-charts extreme.
You know, folks, you better wake up. If there is only one answer and then AI takes over, hasta la vista to the field.
I wonder how many billions of dollars in student loans will be rendered useless when there are no jobs left.
Now think about this. Suppose we have this stormy El Nino winter, then the hurricane season from hell, and a responding hot summer in the US.
2024 is an election year, right? What do you think is going to happen in the media and the election? I have been amazed that the last several years, there has been an unwillingness of people who should be getting out in front, to say nothing and then simply become climate change punching bags. It is almost like there is a death wish. And if what I say has merit, we will be climate change punching bags again. These people in Congress or presidential candidates have to not only take a stand but explain why that stand is there. And believe it or not, the warming now is proof positive that .0042 of the atmosphere of which man has put in .05 of that figure, the US about .1 of that total, IS NOT THE CLIMATE CONTROL KNOB. But they have to be able to stand toe to toe like Senator Massie did with John Kerry and embarrass them.
Forgive the tone, but going along to get along when you have some events going on that should lead to questioning instead of marching to the loudest drum has really got me scratching my head.