My father used to say a weather event not only means something for now but very often, it is telegraphing the atmosphere making a change. I forecast for a major De-Icing company in Europe that has a CEO who is a weather fanatic. So it makes it a bit easier since we speak the same language. Quite frankly, it is how I work best. I BLOCK FOR THE PEOPLE THAT NEED TO CARRY THE BALL. It’s not about being right for me; it is about being right for the client and the company, and if I am right, people skeptical of my methods have to wonder why I am such a Neanderthal denier.
It is out of gratitude and an effort to Answer the Psalmist’s question, ” What Can I Give Back to God for the Blessings he has Poured Out on Me.”
If you forecast globally every day, you learn the humility of being wrong. Climate Scientists have no such crucible. They are NEVER called out. No one in the meteo-misinformation media calls them out. They are aiding and abetting an agenda that is already wreaking havoc on the world, from economic and political repercussions to contributing to needless anxiety among youth. They had the perfect youth spokesperson in Greta, who, by the way, I challenge not to wear any clothing that was made with the aid of petroleum products or use anything to try to get herself through the coming cold in Europe:
Let’s see how your climate strike goes in this weather more on the Euro cold later, as that is not the subject of this missive.
I can’t rehash the litany of busted forecasts. I bust at times, but I have to be right for people to subscribe; if I am not right enough, I lose clients. Since I have thrown everything I have into Weatherbell, in a way, I put my money where my mouth is. And I don’t affect national policy. Here, courtesy of Anthony Watts and WUWT, is a nice list of the nasty busts.
https://wattsupwiththat.com/failed-prediction-timeline/
This is costing mankind untold amounts of progress, and it is only getting worse with the meteo misinformation pushers whose only agenda is to Weaponize Weather in a Phony Climate War ( someone should write a book with that title).
Here is the result of the Poll on who pushes this most:
I am going to lay off Accuweather. Not only did I work there and respect the forecasters I worked with, but they hardly ever show up, so no one is paying attention to them. But the other 3, championed by the weather, channel certainly are.
And that did not even include the BBC and Guardian.
A classic agenda-driven miss just occurred. A couple of weeks ago, major storms slammed the UK. While the meteo-misinformation media blamed climate change for what a lot of people in the UK understood happens quite often (2 notable storms, the Spanish Armada and D-Day), THEY COMPLETELY MISSED WHAT MY COMPANY WAS STRESSING. THE PARALLEL IN THE PATTERN TO WHAT HAPPENED IN 2009. IT WAS SHOOTING FISH IN THE BARREL, TELEGRAPHING MAJOR COLD!
In this case, it occurred about a week before it occurred in 2009 (more mid and late November).
So I was chomping at the bit.
Watch this:
Last 2 weeks of Nov 2009 precipitation:
December 2009
the recent burst of heavy precip
Here comes the cold like clockwork
Snow potential:
Since our deicing client got out in front of a big winter, he bought the ingredients early before the big rush that has to occur (unless they cancel flights cause of too much cold and snow). He now has the market where he does both his company and his clients the most good.
How did we see this?
The blend gave us this for December at 500 MB.
.
Look what the model now, 9 months later is seeing for December:
Now, what do those analogs give the rest of the winter?
So, our idea of a winter opposite of last year is now being seen by modeling.
So, at the end of last winter, we realized that given the look of the pattern and adjusting for feedback of the warming led to more of a moderate El Nino than the standard strong analog, we showed this forecast. And we are already out publicly with a hurricane season that may be a blend of 05,17,20 using our hypothesis about this El Nino collapsing and reversing.
Do you see what happened? They were focused on weaponizing the event for their phony agenda. I was looking at it and trying to answer the weather question to make a forecast of where we are going. Again, I am old school. Not every meteorologist can have a dad who taught him that the weather is always asking you a question, and your FORECAST IS YOUR ANSWER. A huge difference in my field with the common idea that an event is giving us the answer that we are in climate change hell. A climate emergency.
Which of course is another distortion. It’s a climate optimum:
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If you are a young meteorologist, do your own research on climate change. I never ask anyone to believe me. But if I may give some old man advice, when you see a big event, even if everyone is telling you to push climate change, when you are alone, ask yourself well, what question is the weather asking me with this event, and what kind of answer can I give looking down the road. You see, my friends, STORMS MEAN A LOT not only for the present. They are the result of a pattern clash that then sets the stage for another event. So, when you look at it that way, the opportunity is not out-hype the other guy on climate change, but perhaps see another event and get out in front of it. It all depends on where your focus is.