Worst of winter likely yet to come for much of U.S. and Europe

In explaining our forecast, I am also going to contrast and compare what I do with what Dr. Michael Mann did with his hockey stick and why I question it. It has become a major part of the Mann v. Steyn trial in D.C.

In any case:

Reason 1) SOI crash for Feb.

The southern oscillation index is the longest-running metric for the El Nino Sothern Oscillation (ENSO) event we have. As of yet, it has not gone into an El Nino phase for the 90-day period (threshold is 8). It actually was positive in January, which, due to the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) moving through warm phases, led to a longer, stronger thaw than I thought was coming. I went into this in the last blogs. But that is behind us now, and the Southern Oscillation Index (SO)I is crashing. In all the years that happened in February, the US got very cold from February into March. For instance, the most recent occurrence was 2021. 2010 was another year. 1978 was the very nasty, same thing.

Reason 2) strat-warm in Jan.

We jumped all over the warming in December to forecast the cold that came in January. What happens is when the stratosphere warms, the troposphere underneath contracts. So there is a lag. Pressures rise all through the Arctic, and the jet stream comes barrelling underneath. This is happening again.

Reason 3) MJO move.

The MJO has been in warmer phases and cut the feet out from the cold we had the first 3 weeks of January. But now it is moving into the colder phase.

If you notice in the map below there is a lot of brown centered over SE Asia. This is the MJO moving into phase 8.

The correlation to phase 8 looks like this:

Which is where modeling is going now.

This lines up with the who’s who of the great late winter periods for the US and Europe, which I will show below.

Reason 4) teleconnections all flipping.

Negative AO, EPO, NAO, WPO, and a positive PNA all point to cold.

Reason 5) The reason Europe will be turning very cold again:

Once again, while climate alarmists point to the storminess in Europe as climate change, to people like me, it means a pattern change. And, in tandem with the coming US cold, Europe gets its too coldest mid-Feb. to mid-March since 2018.

Reason 6) Cahirs Connection arises 70 north 70 east.

This is named after my meteo professor Dr. John Cahir, who would always watch for the big positive to develop near 70 north and 70 east to be a 1-2 week precursor to cold taking over in North America.

Reason 7) Perhaps most important,  Analogs to who’s who of winter end games.

Notice what I did here. I showed before the 7 factors and made a forecast; it is not peer-reviewed, but it is certainly being criticized by a “winter’s over” crowd; at least it was last week, until we see what happens, can be right. Also, of course, it’s at direct odds with the groundhog. But think about it. All the work laying all this out. What if I am wrong? That would not be good, right? Yet I show my reasons for all to see and criticize, and then we real-time battle test them with the forecast.

Losing to a groundhog is not exactly good for me.

Now let’s contrast and compare this with Dr Mann. Testimony has revealed that with the data set he had, there were 22 possible solutions, but only two showed his hockey stick. There is a chance that he picked the right two.  But I have real problems with his ideas that the medieval warm period was local. That makes no physical sense. We use teleconnections and I show this all the time and actually am showing you here. We had a big thaw in the US, right?  So did Europe. Other areas were also warm. The very nature of the entire design means you can’t just have it warm in one area. If you forecasted for a living, you would know that, and it would raise red flags. So if your sample is from areas that were naturally colder when the other areas were warmer, you would not see or know that. You can’t just erase the warm period around 1000 because you feel like it. And you have to let people who may have reasons to disagree look at your work.

Think about how nuts this is. You don’t let people look at the work in a reconstruction when, as a global forecaster, I have to show reasons BEFORE THE OCCURRENCE. Why would you trust the former? As for me, you don’t have to trust me; let’s see what happens, but the point is it’s all out there with the reasons for all to look at BEFORE. Never mind, you can’t look if you might disagree about something that has already occurred.

And how is it we are basing policy and have a whole segment of people in control that are claiming we should simply accept, unchallenged a result that has about 10% of the total samples and those subjectively picked by the authors of them, and that led to fame and fortune and rock star status?

From testimony:

The evidence shows: that Michael Mann’s Hockey stick required several tricks up his sleeve. In addition to truncating data, and padding the data, he smoothed variability to produce a flat blade, he downsized the scaling of the temperature axis to imply narrow natural variability, and he dramatically overemphasized 2 of 22 datasets to produce the hockey stick blade, then he spliced in observations into a reconstruction project to further enhance his contrived fake hockey stick blade.

There is a chance that Dr Mann is right, but here are his samples:

Notice the two he used. What about the others? How are they just dismissed? Especially since the idea of the medieval warm period being regional makes no sense in the real world. I suspect the earth’s oceans had warmed like they are now, establishing a La Nina base state and a stronger tendency for the MJO to be in phases 4-7, the warm phases as we see now. We can argue about that, but Mann can’t because he has no idea of it, and if he did he would have understood physically what he was proposing was highly unlikely.

So there is a vast difference. You will be able to say, at the end of winter, well, Joe’s reasoning had some degree or merit (or not). But nothing is hidden. As for what is going on with Dr Mann, there are a lot of revelations that were not known that are coming out. Many trillions of dollars and untold amounts of harm based on a subjective choice of 2 out of 22 samples have been the result.

It is like the Covid link strategy yet again. (Including Gore’s claim that net zero will shut global warming down within 3 years, similar to Biden’s, if you get the shot, you won’t get Covid). Or the Hunter Biden Laptop strategy.

I don’t know how they can assert that Dr. Mann was harmed by Steyn since it’s Steyn who has had to pay for his own defense and has suffered numerous physical setbacks while all this is going on.  Dr. Mann is paling around with Bill Nye, Leonardo Di Caprio, and on and on and on. It is a DC jury, so who knows? Mann has not paid a dime in this situation. I would argue his stature has been enhanced in the community he cares most about, leftist, man-made climate change agenda pushers. And that is where all the money is. But to me, what is also important is that I can show an example that compares and contrasts real scientific methods, for instance, with my 7 fold reasons and hypothesis on the rest of the winter to be seen and tested, and Mann’s, which has been largely hidden and accepted by those who’s motives can not be the love of weather and climate, but of power and control.