Some glaring contradictions in the climate narrative

I will start this hammering of three major points in the climate narrative.

1. that Tropical Cyclones were going to increase due to warming,
2. that warming is more costly, and
3. that arctic sea ice would disappear (and Greenland ice would melt).

So this paper from the American Geophysical Union right off the bat supports what I have been saying for two decades (see, if you actually work in the weather every day on a global scale, you can see these things and don’t have to wait till 2021 for it to become official).

Trends in Global Tropical Cyclone Activity: 1990–2021:

….This study investigates 1990–2021 global tropical cyclone (TC) activity trends, a period characterized by consistent satellite observing platforms. We find that fewer hurricanes are occurring globally and that the tropics are producing less Accumulated Cyclone Energy — a metric accounting for hurricane frequency, intensity, and duration. This decreasing trend has primarily been driven by a significant downturn in western North Pacific TC activity — the tropical basin that typically is the most active. Short-lived named storms (TCs lasting ≤2 days) and the number of times that TCs quickly strengthen (≥50 kt in 24 hr) have increased significantly since 1990. Identifying more short-lived named storms is likely due to improved sensors, while increases in rapidly intensifying storms may be driven by more favorable conditions. Global damage from TCs has significantly increased as well, likely largely due to population growth and increased value of coastal assets (physical structures and non-physical risk exposure). The trend during the past 32 years toward a more La Niña-like environment has favored North Atlantic TC activity and suppressed North and South Pacific activity. Since the Pacific Ocean normally generates much more activity than the Atlantic, global TC activity has generally trended downward.

BTW, the last 3 years have trended downward more, and this year, despite the Atlantic trying to take up the slack, could be a record-low year globally.

I have written about this many times, the La Nina base state since the Super Nino of 1997-1998:

So they mention that, but they fail to dig deeper. Cumulative warming of the ocean, which I have shown many times, has a direct linkage to increased geothermal input.

The accumulation of much above-average warm water in the northern oceans due to the thermohaline circulation redistributing heat leads to a distortion of the warming pattern and the vertical velocity patterns, so there is less cloudiness now over the tropics and more near the land masses of southeast Asia and Africa during the northern hemispheric tropical season.

Blue is more outgoing longwave radiation (fewer clouds), and yellow and green have more clouds and less OLR.

Since CO2 bands need OLR to cause any warming through radiative properties (it does not absorb incoming), it can cause some additional warming (minor, as the bands are saturated), but it RELIES ON THE NATURAL WARMING AS THE SOURCE! CO2 is not warming the oceans. But what is happening is the opposite of their idea of more tropical activity. The reason for the greater cloudiness and precip over Africa and Southeast Asia (clouds and rain) is the natural convergence there in the summer since the land heats up. So, the oceans warm naturally, creating the distorted pattern that leads to less, not more, upward motion over much of the source region for cyclones.

There is massive sinking across all the global tropics now, and it is even in the Atlantic. But the Atlantic should take up the slack. So far, most of the activity has been right in our target zone, and the Atlantic is running 3x the normal Accumulated Cyclonic Energy while the Pacific basin is under 50%. I will have an update Sep 7, but I am expecting a hyperactive 2nd half of the season for the Atlantic.

Currently, the hammer and sickle of sinking air is centered over Venezuela but extending up into the Main Development Region( sorry, with Kamunism all the rage, I could not resist the wisecrack), but that will change around Sept 1 and beyond.

This morphs into winter and why the warming has saved us so much money due to the lack of extreme cold in the US in a sustained manner.

Yet, no one talks about this. Why is this happening? Well, let us look at OLR the last 5 winters.

That pattern with lots of clouds and precip over SE Asia are phases 4 and 5 of the Madden Julian Oscillation.

Look at precip in the  last 5 winters:

Lots of precip over phase 4/5 areas.

Look at the temperature correlation:

Another temp analysis of the last 5 winters.

It is a perfect explanation. That is not from the input of 2 molecules of CO2 out of every 10,000 in the last 11,700 years. Since the CO2 bands that can cause warming have been saturated since 1951, the change should have been upfront in the first 50 years, yet there was little change in temperatures from 1951 to 1960.

1981-1990

It’s only after this started with geothermal that all this warming went off.

So common sense, logic, and actually looking at the weather on a global scale for 50-plus years and understanding Water Vapor is 100x more significant than CO2 would relegate CO2 to just a small part of the 3rd order of importance in warming.

But how much money has this saved the US, this warming? No one wants to bring it up. How much downtime has it saved our economy? Cold kills far more than heat, despite what they are trying to push on you now. Air conditioning is not as costly as heating. It is nighttime lows, not daytime highs, that have come up in the last 10 years more.

Daytime highs. They have come up where it driest:

But nighttime lows have increased in areas where there are naturally higher dew points, pointing the finger at water vapor. The ocean is the greatest source of that.

So, of course, the mean temperature comes up. But it’s not like its the gaining inferno we saw in the plains in such years as 1901,1934,1936,1954

My point is this is not an apocalypse, not even close. I thought we were all in globally. Well, if you said the globe would be hyper with tropical cyclones, and it goes the other way, you are wrong. And, just like denying the ice age missive in the 70s, they will somehow try to deny that. If you say this warming is bad for the US overall, you are wrong. It is saving us tremendous amounts of money overall; It’s likely saving lives. With all the homeless we have today, they have a lot harder time with cold than warm.

BTW the last 30 days have shown most of the country to be just fine during the so-called Dog Days.

Meanwhile, Arctic temps in the winter have risen, so not as much ice develops it is still frigid but above normal. Again increased Water Vapor means more where it is very cold and dry.  It leads to more clouds, lower pressure, and higher temperatures. Instead of freezing to death in 3 seconds, you will freeze to death in 3.5 seconds. It also means more snow in the northern hemisphere in winter, another side issue.

In the summer, the normal temperature north of 80 degrees north is about 33 degrees F. Ever try to melt of block of ice at 33F? What makes you think you are going to melt an entire frozen ocean at that? So, who is the genius that came up with the idea the Arctic is going to be ice-free if there is no summer warming? Meanwhile, how dumb do you have to be (hint D in Geology, John Kerry) to not even look at what you are being told and then ask, well how is it all going to melt? So, this summer, the Arctic was not warm.

(The dashed line is 32F.) The warming for the so-called hottest year on record was during the winter, and it was still frigid much of the time.

So because there may not be as much of an increase, we did see arctic ice decrease for a time.

But like all good Le Chetelierian reactions, a new equilibrium is established. Hottest year ever be dammed, and the ice tendency remains level.

So, where is the accountability for this? Or the Canary in the coal mine for warming, Greenland with a normal Surface mass budget at the end of the melting season in the hottest year ever.

There is no accountability. These are just a few of the numerous examples showing that the fear-mongering is based on an agenda. But I want to ask all you meteo media people this: How many media outlets were there in the Soviet Union? Or in Venezuela now? What makes you think you are so gifted that somehow, when all this shakes out, and there is the elimination of counter ideas, you are going to have a job? Do you really think by not challenging people pushing all this, that somehow you are the smart one who will be one of a few mouthpieces that will be paid to recite what you are told? How many times can you ignore obvious contradictions, be it weather or whatever, and think that you are somehow going to be the last man standing when our freedom is curtailed?