Let’s look at the comparisons of this years hurricane season, vs 1954, Florida vs the East Coast.
Specifically looking at this aspect and trying to inject some sense into post storm hysteria.
Our comparison: The magnitude of 2 Major New England hits in 11 days vs.2. SAFFIR SIMPSON MAJOR hits in 14 days in Fla, and the bullwhipped storms, Hazel and Helene..
( note post-storm analysis has Milton as a 2.4 on our scale, slightly under my starting point on a major of 2.5).
And does this tell us anything about man-made influences, from climate change to government control of the weather? Because like every hurricane season, the left comes out and weaponizes the storms for their purpose but in this case, other people that I agree with on most things are weaponizing it, claiming it’s evidence of government control. So poor little Joey, the now 69-year-old that was ridiculed as a child for being “blizzard belly” ( I loved snow and the weather and was fat) is now finding himself getting hit from both sides because of my insistence there was nothing unnatural about any of this.
So let us review and keep in mind that no co2 or use of government control was used in me making these forecasts.
1). On CFACT we showed you this on December 7,2023 predicting a hurricane season from hell impact-wise on the US coast. The tracks of the storms speak loudly as to its accuracy.
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On the impact scoreboard which totals intensity on our power and impact scale at a storm’s closest approach to a coastline, this year has 15 points, tied for 3rd with 2004 and behind 2005 with 18.6 and 2020 with 20. Milton btw proved my point about Saffir Simpson as people were freaking out over a storm that was only 100 miles wide when it was a cat 5. When it hit the coast it was over 300 miles wide but weaker at the center. So our scale communicates that better. But alas I don’t believe in man-made climate change so until the idea comes from the government where they can get credit, The scale change isn’t going to happen. So we have the above on Dec 7. Remember this is showing where we thought they would go. Last year, with the exception Idalia, another storm that fell apart, that area was virtually empty as our forecast had for last year also.
So we get to the second half of the season and to get you ready, we put this out Sept 5.
https://www.cfact.org/2024/09/05/updated-hurricane-forecast-additonal-big-impact-still-expected/
This tweet went out on Sept 8 warning Gov Desantis and SE governors about the pattern of high impact the last week of September into mid-October.
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recall in 2022 I did that here on CFACT for Ian. Written 9 days in advance, published a week before.
https://www.cfact.org/2022/09/21/41023/
And we have this explanation. WHY THE SEASON was evolving the way it was NATURALLY
https://www.cfact.org/2024/09/30/the-whys-of-the-hurricane-season-so-far/
I have set up this timeline because who said what and when is important in establishing credibility.I live in a world where until the event,or close, the media is clueless and then comes out and spouts things that show they were ignorant of the setup for such an event like this and know nothing about events like this in the past.
So at the risk of sounding like a pompous arse, you should know this was set up. I have to do it, it is how I make a living getting my clients ready before its a known That gives them a leg up.
So if this was this good, just think how good I would have been if I factored in CO2 input or got control of the CIA joystick that controls the weather (SUPER SARCASM).
So the Poll question was on twitter:
So that is a good sign, that this poll reveals that people understand 2 major hurricanes hitting further north within 11 days is more impressive than 2 major hurricanes hitting in 14 days ( one of them on our scale, Milton was slightly below major at landfall and the wind reports back that up)in Florida) further south.
While I can set up a comparison to many events, I am going to use the 1954 season on the East Coast and this year.
How are they in the same genre to compare?
1) Major hits in close to each other
2). Upper low Capture of Hazel and Helene
this season in FLA
The East Coast Season 1954
Helene pre/post landfall map and 500 mb
Hazel set up
1 :30 am Oct 15,1954
1:30 pm
inland about the same amount of time as Helene when she was blasting the Carolinas . NYC had its highest wind gust ever at 113 mph shortly after.
Keep in mind Hazel was 3 weeks later and further northeast and as strong or stronger than Helene.
Think about that. While we saw the heavy and well-forecasted rains in the Carolinas ( 3 days before I termed it a flood of biblical proportions on the way, but this administration was completely asleep at the switch. Their own hurricane center was on top of it) with Helene, NYC highest wind on record was with a storm inland for 10 hours passing 150 miles to their west. Imagine if that happened today.
1:30 am Oct 16
So which is more extreme as far as a deviation from what is expected?
I am not going to say either though I am partial to 54. ( Gee I wonder why. I was put to bed, not with the story of the 3 little bears but the 3 big hurricanes of 54 ). But only if 54, and other years where the weather went wild, did not occur, can you conclude that something nefarious, be it climate change or government control of the weather, can be the cause.
Nothing has happened that simply looking at what has happened before would make you think anything different. IMO. Only if you don’t know about what has happened before do you believe what is happening now is something other than nature is responsible for. I am not talking about modifying or mitigating the situation, I am talking about control, like creating and steering a hurricane. A guy asked me if I had read all the CIA reports on this, I asked him if he had looked at over 50k Weather maps on the Weather Prediction Center site of past events.
Here, go back and look at all these maps on this site and you will see that the weather has been wilder:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dwm/dwm.shtml
And it should be wilder. I ask myself why it is not. It does me no good to have nice weather for my business. I should be all in with this stuff. That is where the money is.
I can show hundreds of maps of crazy tracks Or rapid deepeners. There is a vast difference between seeding clouds or trying to disrupt the eyewall of a powerful storm like project stormfury ( which I advocate for when they are coming to the coast, look how fast Milton’s eye fell apart in this case naturally).. The idea is that the stronger and more perfect the storm the more introducing a process to change the condensation processes could influence the storm. Like my geothermal ideas, which add to my resistance against CO2 warming the planet, I have a lot of people on my side that vehemently disagree with me.
Which is fine with me, tho it may not be to them as I have heard. Geez I thought it was the left that demands lock step.
Go do the work. I spend thousands of hours peering over maps of the past ( I love it, and I realize to most it would be long and boring) If you do that, if you see something coming now, you have an idea. And that is my ask of you. Go back, day by day from the 1800s and look at what has happened.
It’s how I picked out that Texas Freeze 9 days out. I looked at the maps of 1899 and simply matched it up. And guess what, A lot of times nothing happens to the extreme. More often than not, the weather falls short. But there are times when ordinary events combined produce the extraordinary.
BTW that. Vertical Velocity pattern of shut down i showed you in the blog on the why’s of the season, that shut us down in mid-season, is here this week into next.
however the end of the month into November it is back for one last round. So the end game looks like its from the Caribbean and then perhaps up into the impact areas again.
I have not yet issued an “Attention Governor DeSantis” watch
Remember the Wise Guys of Weather on Am 970 the Answer in NYC. Sunday 5 pm. Streaming live and then on a podcast. I hope to demystify a lot of this, and have some fun doing it.