As many of you know, I am big on weather events impacting history. I won’t go into the examples, because, quite frankly, you could write a book on it. But we all know how the weather played a huge role in World War II (D-Day, the Battle of the Bulge, and of course the German invasion of Russia come to mind). That is one of the two examples of a major army invading Russia and the Russian winter turning the tide of the war. In both cases, Russia was on the defensive (Napoleon and Hitler), and the miscalculation of those leaders, combined with the weather, turned the tide of the wars.
But this time it’s different. Though it’s the winter that may be the key to ending the war with Ukraine, it’s for opposite reasons.
- Russia is on the offense, not the defense.
- Their energy sector has been hurt, and shortages are showing up.
- The Russian people are not on the defense, where they are fighting for the survival of their country, so shortages of energy in a harsh Russian winter may lead to popular pressure to end this war.
So the question is, will there be a harsh enough winter to impact this?
First of all, immense pressure on their energy sector has to be used. Ukraine knocking out sources of energy is crucial. And stopping their income from outside sources (how we stopped exporting LNG to Europe and made them go to Russia, which led to dependency and fed Russia’s coffers, is something I can’t get my head around). But our policies seem to be headed in the right direction. That, of course, is above my pay grade, but making it harder for Russia as far as energy goes is simple common sense. Now, what happens if the weather is cold and shortages start? This could break the Russian economy. So, what does winter look like?
Both the Canadian and U.S. models are hinting at a colder-than-average winter for many of the areas in Russia that demand the most energy.
The blend of the models would imply normal to below-normal temperatures for Russia’s most populous areas. (Remember, normal is darn cold in Russia, and if you have energy shortages due to other reasons, the pressure mounts.) A lot of the analogs are hinting at the same thing. So, the weather could put added pressure on the Russian position.
The fall will be crucial to set the stage for this… But this time, the weather will not work to help the defense of Russia; instead, it will work to limit and perhaps stop its offense. A lot will depend on geopolitical pressure (for example, taking out more energy sources both for domestic use and for income and then a normal to below-normal Russian winter showing up).
When we get to spring, we can all decide if the weather played a role.