noRatlYes, global climate constantly changes . . . with contrasting short-term regional warming and cooling episodes invariably occurring simultaneously. Such developments happen for lots of reasons, all of which likely have nothing do with CO2 emissions.

A September 24 Washington Post article authored by Chris Mooney headlines: “Why some scientists are worried about a surprisingly cold ‘blob’ in the North Atlantic Ocean.”

While clearly a weather episode rather than a minimum three-decade-long climate trend, this has purportedly happened when “the first eight months of 2015 were the hottest stretch yet recorded for the globe’s surface land and oceans based upon temperature records going back to 1880.”

Mooney also notes that in the North Atlantic Ocean south of Greenland and Iceland, “the ocean surface has seen very cold temperatures in the past eight months.” In fact, North Atlantic Ocean temperatures between January and August were reportedly “the coldest on record” over the past 80 years.

And just why are “some scientists” supposedly worried about this? Yup, it’s because they attribute cause for alarm, as always, to global warming.

Here Mooney goes to Michael Mann, famous for his discredited Earth-on-fire-and-we’re-causing-it “hockey stick” graph for the DENMARKbeachanswer. In a paper Mann published along with co-author Stefan Rahmstorf in Nature Climate Change, the cause for fear is that the Atlantic Ocean circulation is weakening due to a release of fresh water melting in Greenland, which can “mess it all up.”

By the way, according to the Danish Meteorological Institute, the number of year-to-year Arctic days with mean temperatures above freezing has changed very little over the past 55 years, except for 2013 which had only half the long-term mean of 90 days.

Their data, indicating a stable northern climate, also challenge claims of warming-induced thinning of sea ice extent over recent decades. And although annual sea ice buildup is influenced mostly by wind, as with temperatures, the annual and more seasonal changes have remained quite constant as well.

Incidentally, even the UN’s alarmist Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has been forced to concede that 111 of its 114 climate models have grossly overpredicted the global warming rate in recent decades. Their latest 2013 “Fifth Assessment Report” shows a considerable reduction in near-term doom prognostications.

On top of inescapable measurement uncertainties, surface ocean and land temperature records have been tweaked many times, invariably to suggest more recent warming than previously trumpeted.buoys

The latest adjustments by NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) inflate superior measurements taken by fixed or floating buoys by adding in earlier and far more haphazard measurements taken from ships.

Even relatively crude and sparsely located modern thermometers didn’t exist until the last hundred years, while satellite measurements which comprehensively cover vastly more area and are much more accurate have only existed since 1979. Still, those satellites indicate that global temperatures have been statistically flat since 1998, a major El Niño year.

A new and again entirely natural El Niño is shaping up to raise sea surface temperatures across the eastern half of the tropical Pacific.

The National Weather Service reports that all of its models predict the rise to gain strength, with normal wind patterns interrupted by “enhanced convection over the central and eastern equatorial Pacific that could cause a full reversal of the weather pattern and torrential rains to the West Coast.”

The NWS further predicts a 95% probability that this latest El Niño will continue through the Northern Hemisphere during the winter of 2015-2016, then gradually weaken in spring of 2016.

Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology reports that although tropical Pacific temperature anomalies, the variance to average temperatures in elninoEl Ninotral Pacific, are currently at their highest values since 1997-98, they still remain more than half of a degree below that previous peak. So far, 2015 is actually following a normal El Niño life cycle.

So, finally, is 2015 really going to turn out to be the hottest year ever? According to Joseph D’Aleo, an elected fellow of the American Meteorological Society and the first director of meteorology at The Weather Channel, not even close.

He told me that recent months are “in the middle of the pack for the last 20 years of satellite and NOAA raw data that goes into the models . . . not skyrocketing to the Mooney.”

As Principal Research Scientist Roy Spencer, a meteorologist at the University of Alabama-Huntsville, observes: “The [surface] thermometer network is made up of a patchwork of non-research-quality instruments that were never made to monitor long-term temperature changes to tenths or hundredths of a degree, and the huge data voids around the world are either ignored or infilled with fictitious data.”

Dr. Spencer notes British economist Ronald Coase once saying; “If you torture the data long enough, it will confess to anything.” Likewise, hasn’t climate science suffered enough?

This article was first posted at:


  • Larry Bell

    CFACT Advisor Larry Bell heads the graduate program in space architecture at the University of Houston. He founded and directs the Sasakawa International Center for Space Architecture. He is also the author of "Climate of Corruption: Politics and Power Behind the Global Warming Hoax."