Is climate change elevating coastal flooding risk?

By |2016-09-26T21:13:14+00:00September 26th, 2016|CFACT Insights|57 Comments

atlantislibertyA September 3 New York Times article by Justin Gillis, headlined “Flooding of Coast, Caused by Global Warming, Has Begun,” breathlessly reported that:  “Scientists’ warnings that the rise of the sea would eventually imperil the United States’ [Atlantic] coastline are no longer theoretical.”

Citing street flooding in Norfolk, VA, a roadway connection to Tybee Island, GA, and saltwater-battered roads and drains in Fort Lauderdale, FL, as supporting evidence, Gillis concludes that human CO2 emissions have caused land ice to melt and ocean water to expand, causing an accelerating rise of sea levels ” . . . to the point that a high tide and a brisk wind are all it takes to send water pouring into streets and homes.”

Gillis is clearly right about correlating “recent” sea level rise with warming global temperatures. After all, it has risen about 400 feet since the peak of the last ice age around 18,000 years ago . . . a dramatic change in what amounts to merely a cosmic blink in the planet’s 4.5-billion-year history.

As for doom and gloom prophet and profiteer Al Gore’s algorehyperventilated warning 10 years ago that unless drastic measures to reduce greenhouse gases are taken within the next 10 years, Arctic and Antarctic melts would cause a sea level rise up to 20 feet “in the near future” and an ice-free North Pole by around 2013 . . . it’s his alarm that is proving to be all wet. By 2014 that sea ice was even thicker and covered a larger area than when he originated that hype.

Sea levels have actually been rising at a constant rate of barely 7 inches per century over the past 3,000 years without any measured acceleration. If patterns hold, they will probably continue to do so with little or no influence from us until the predicted arrival of the next ice age in about 3,000 years.

Even the UN’s latest 2013 IPCC report states, “It is likely that GMSL [Global Mean Sea Level] rose between 1920 and 1950 at a rate comparable to that observed between 1993 and 2010.”

None of the foregoing is intended to suggest that coastal flooding isn’t a very real and seriously consequential threat for many low-elevation regions and peoples, particularly those frequented by hurricanes and tropical storms.

sunsetYet even the reliably alarmist IPCC admitted in 2010 that: “Historical shoreline position change over 20 to 60 years on 27 central Pacific atoll islands showed that total land area remained relatively stable in 43% of islands, whilst another 43% had increased in area, and the rest showed a net reduction in land area.”

The IPCC also reported that most inundation of islands is presently linked to earthquakes, storm surges, and swell waves as well as sea level rise. Regarding tropical storm surges, both NOAA and the IPCC have confirmed that there have been no increases in the severities or frequencies of droughts, floods, thunderstorms, or tornadoes in decades.

Also consider that while the world’s mean surface temperatures have been gradually rising in fits and starts over the past 150 years or so, they have been flat between the two major El Niño’s over the past 18 years despite rising atmospheric CO2 levels.

A 2015 study published in The Anthropocene Review by New Zealand researchers Murray Ford and Paul Kench at the University of Auckland noted there has been a “paucity of evidence” to underpin mainstay political claims and popular media accounts and projections of islands being “washed away.”

Historic aerial photographs and recent high-resolution satellite imagery of “shoreline changes on six atolls and two mid-ocean reef islands in the Republic of the Marshall Islands” show otherwise.

They reported that “since the middle of the 20th century more marshalluisshoreline has accreted than eroded, with 17.23% showing erosion, compared to 39.7% showing no change.”

The islands examined registered a net growth from 9.09 km² to 9.46 km² between World War II and 2010.

Ford and Kench consequently urged that “governments of small island nations need to acknowledge that island shorelines are highly dynamic and islands have persisted and in many cases grown in tandem with sea level rise.”

Warren Buffett, whose Berkshire Hathaway, Inc. is the largest shareholder in Munich Re, the world’s biggest re-insurance company, summed up his take on the situation in its 2015 annual report: “Up to now, climate change has not produced more frequent nor more costly hurricanes nor other weather-related events covered by insurance.”

Buffettwarr ended with some good advice: “As a citizen, you may understandably find climate change keeping you up at nights. As a homeowner in a low-lying area, you may wish to consider moving. But when you are thinking only as a shareholder of a major insurer, climate change should not be on your list of worries.”
NOTE:  A version of this article appears at:


  1. Immortal600 September 27, 2016 at 9:12 AM

    All the AGW advocates can do is scare-monger. That is why so many people believe in the scam.

    • Gulredo September 27, 2016 at 11:28 PM

      The evidence is pilling up against catastrophic GW due to AGW, like the weather is just takes time to wear them down.

      • Dano2 September 28, 2016 at 12:24 PM

        No it is not. You cannot show this evidence, nor can you show projections of see-eh-gee-dubya either.



        • J T September 28, 2016 at 12:36 PM

          Go play in your sandbox.

          • Dano2 September 28, 2016 at 12:44 PM

            You can’t show either?




        • GRAMPA September 28, 2016 at 1:27 PM

          yes we can for they are in the ice records taken in both arctic and antarctic ice. They can tell the temperature by the density and oxygen content in the bubbles in the ice. the fauna and flora embedded tells us what type of life evolved and when. Our planet goes about its life in cycles that are primary controlled by the sun. our sea level raises about 6-7 inches per thousand years. about every three thousand years we have ice ages that start the cycle all over again. these correspond with the sun spot cycles and we are overdue for an ice age. science isnt done or proven by conscientious. we are approaching to another Maunder Minimum which causes the ice ages. we had a smaller even from the latter half of the 1600s to the first quarter of the 1700s. this was called the little ice age and is well documented. now I have pointed to the proof that global warming is a farce. Mine is all documented will you offer the same? speculation and innuendo from concerned scientists are not proof.

          • Dano2 September 28, 2016 at 1:33 PM

            What does this list of comical talking points have to do with the argumentation?



            • GRAMPA September 28, 2016 at 3:43 PM

              the word is argument! I see none

              • Dano2 September 28, 2016 at 3:48 PM

                Argumentation is the germane word. Comprising the false assertions and the rhetorical method employed.




                • GRAMPA September 28, 2016 at 3:57 PM

                  so again you are incorrect for the data comes from many sources and different scientists and locations so how does it repeat. I offer data not opinion. I assert nothing, I offer data that is verifiable and accepted as science. therefore must be taken as true until proven false. If you are able then do it!

                  • Dano2 September 28, 2016 at 4:04 PM



                    Nonetheless, the topic is the weak, wrong argumentation by the OP upthread. Your comically botched talking points are a deflection from that commenter’s performance.



                    • GRAMPA September 28, 2016 at 7:37 PM

                      Illegitimi non carborundum

                    • Dano2 September 28, 2016 at 11:45 PM

                      You continue to amuse me.



                    • GRAMPA September 30, 2016 at 7:41 AM

                      It doesnt take much to amuse a shallow mind.

                    • Dano2 September 30, 2016 at 10:59 AM

                      …and your ravings aren’t much.



                  • Ian5 October 2, 2016 at 10:45 PM

                    “I offer data that is verifiable and accepted as science.”

                    You are making some outrageous claims. Please point us to your sources. Thanks.

        • Brin Jenkins October 2, 2016 at 2:00 PM

          Projections have all been discredited by time and observation.

      • Immortal600 September 28, 2016 at 1:23 PM

        Yes, it is. Despite what the responder to you said, the climate and time itself is shredding their hypothesis.

        • Gulredo September 28, 2016 at 1:28 PM

          I blocked the user long ago, they refuse to accept facts when presented, they are too busy waving their arms screaming the sky is falling like all their other bag of hammers evangelists.

          • Immortal600 September 28, 2016 at 1:31 PM

            Yeah, he is annoying. The most annoying thing he attempts is condescension. You’d think he would be calmer in presenting his case but he can’t. His inability to end a post without attaching his phony ‘Best D’ at the end is an indicator of some psychological problem.

          • Dano2 September 28, 2016 at 1:36 PM

            That makes it easier for others to see the refutation – no annoying deflections from the disinformers!



        • Dano2 September 28, 2016 at 1:35 PM

          Aside from the fact it is a robust theory, you cannot show anything about anything regarding shredding their hypothesis.

          You have zero scienfic evidence to show shredding. Zip. Zilch. Nothing. Nada. Nil. Null set. Squat. Jack. Diddly. Bupkis.



          • Immortal600 September 28, 2016 at 1:37 PM


            • Dano2 September 28, 2016 at 1:38 PM

              Exactly. You can’t back your claim.

              Everyone knows.



              • Immortal600 September 28, 2016 at 1:41 PM

                My claim is truth and you can’t refute any of it with your sky is falling garbage.

                Until you are able to make a post without your phony ‘Best D’ at the end, your information is garbage. Think you can make one post without it? Will you melt if you do? Will you have a mental breakdown if you do? tell us.

                • Dano2 September 28, 2016 at 1:42 PM

                  You can’t back your claim. You prance, you flounce, you ululate, you hand-flap, you clown. But you don’t back your claim.

                  Everyone knows.

                  What’s even more comical? The weak cop-out Until you are able. Sure indicator of a losing argument.



                  • Immortal600 September 28, 2016 at 1:42 PM

                    You still can’t do it. Seek psychiatric help.

                    • Dano2 September 28, 2016 at 1:43 PM

                      You can’t back your claim.

                      You prance, you wriggle, you deflect, you hand-flap, you clown.

                      But you don’t back your claim.

                      Everyone knows you can’t support your typing spasms.



                    • Immortal600 September 28, 2016 at 1:44 PM

                      You are a kook and everyone here knows it. You get no more time from me.

    • J T September 28, 2016 at 12:35 PM

      It’s also why so many don’t.

  2. Dano2 September 27, 2016 at 1:39 PM

    Yes, climate change is elevating coastal flood risk. Ask Miami.

    BTW, a number of working, actual scientists looked at the article and found it to be solid and credible:



    • J T September 28, 2016 at 12:37 PM

      It is you who lack credibility, and everyone here knows it.

      • Dano2 September 28, 2016 at 12:43 PM

        Showing evidence that you can’t refute lacks credibility.




      • Immortal600 September 28, 2016 at 1:02 PM

        True. He suffers from an extreme form of OCD. Notice how it is impossible for him to make a post without attaching his phony ‘Best D’ to it. Sad case.

      • Gulredo September 28, 2016 at 1:16 PM

        I was so glad when someone told me I could block a bot.

    • John Anthony September 28, 2016 at 2:11 PM

      We already know why Miami has elevated flood risk. It often does and it has nothing to do with so-called man-made global warming.

      • Dano2 September 28, 2016 at 2:17 PM

        Better tell Miami that. They should have consulted you before they began all that work and funding, eh?



        • John Anthony September 28, 2016 at 2:44 PM

          Lots of people could have walked them through it, D. In fact, people did. I am sure you know that the seas are not always rising on Miami. Beyond the normal increase that has been going on since the last Ice Age, the jump occurs when there is a king tide. That is why they installed a pump system. They do not need it all of the time. But, without the nonsensical CC, there would have been no funding. That much they know. CC is a quite profitable, if shady business.

          Take care, John

          • Dano2 September 28, 2016 at 3:24 PM

            Not what science says, sorry. Miami went with the science.

            You had your chance to sway them with anti-science or some of that newfangled NewScience. Now it is too late – Miami went with the science.



            • John Anthony September 28, 2016 at 7:45 PM

              Yes Dano, I agree with you 100% Miami used science. In fact, they used the very same science that was used to predict there would be grass on an iceless North Pole by 2014 and New York City would be gurgling under 20′ of water. That is called pseudo-science and is the stuff of scare tactics and political capital. As for the graphs, they are probably accurate representations of the appropriate tidal guages. Let’s assume they are. What do they mean? Looking at 50 or 100 years of sea level data is like sticking your finger out of the window on a cold day and predicting the next ice age is upon us. The data may be fine, the conclusions are bombastic and overblown to be kind. Look at the temperature rises. The one graph suggested 5.5 inches per century. Well, since the sea levels have been rising an average of 4″ – 12″ per century for the past 3000 years, it is pretty boring stuff we are looking at. But, what about the sudden increase from the past decade!? Golly, that must be proof positive the industrial age on is spewing ever more CO2 and condemning Mother earth to a catastrophic terminus! Truth is, no one knows how sharply these levels have risen and fallen over the millenia. Todays events might well be below par. What do know is that the rise of sea level is not aligned with the rate of temperature change of the earth, not the increase in atmospheric CO2. We also do not know if the sea level is rising or tectonic shifts that occur between quake activity are causing the reading, which they often do. Then there is the issue of where the IPCC got the idea that what we are seeing is predictive of a future of floods beyond the expected. For that the sea level study group relied on the Pliocene Period. Unfortunately the group discovered from the results of Stanford School of Earth, Energy and Environmental Sciences that their calculations of the sea rise was off by a factor of 2X! All of this and more has led to the esteemed IPCC being in the laughable position of not knowing (following their 5th IPCC report in 2015) whether their sea level calculations between 1900 and 1990 were too high or too low, unsure whether their future calculations are too high or too low and scant idea of how to obtain an accurate measure and factor in all of the variables. Ah. But they do know one thing. It is very dangerous, can destroy mankind and the only soluition is to send a few billion dollars annually to the green climate fund,

              • Dano2 September 28, 2016 at 11:45 PM

                Clownical Gish Gallop. You amused me.



              • Immortal600 September 29, 2016 at 7:55 AM

                You gave a reasoned, well thought, cogent reply. Did you expect an intelligent response from the fool? Look what you got. Childish nonsense. Also that poster is known to suffer some sort of psychological disorder. It is impossible for him to end a post without adding his phony ‘Best D’ at the end. You are wasting your time on the fool. He is as vacuous as his avatar.

              • Immortal600 September 29, 2016 at 3:45 PM

                John, AGW proponents like to focus on flooding in Miami, yet Nassau in the Bahamas is 187 miles away, no higher in elevation and doesn’t experience flooding like Miami. I wonder how the AGW zealots rectify that one!

                • John Anthony September 29, 2016 at 3:56 PM

                  Of course it is childish to assume an increased tidal guage reading means the seas are rising. The sea floor is constantly changing. To say the unique levels between Miami and the Bahamas are a sign the sea level is rising, would be like saying you can pour water in a glass, and the fluid level on one side will be higher than on the other!

                  • Dano2 October 1, 2016 at 1:10 PM

                    You made that up. Comically.

                    You can’t show the reason for the tide gauge changes are the result of seafloor changes.



                • Dano2 October 1, 2016 at 1:09 PM

                  Educate yourself on the decisionmaking process that the Miami area underwent.



  3. John Anthony September 28, 2016 at 1:10 PM

    I love this Climate Change nonsense. It really sounds good. No one can prove that CC is causing the seas to rise faster than the 3000 year norm of about 7″ per 100 years, so, this group changed the way they measure sea level. Suddenly the headlines abound, “Seas rise the fastest in 3000 years.” Oh, what a little grant money can do.

  4. ONTIME September 28, 2016 at 2:09 PM

    How much of this land incursion is due to natural erosion and earth platelet movement, it must factored in but it is also a variable…..

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  7. trevormarr October 7, 2016 at 5:56 AM

    In 2016, AGW now stands for Al Gore’s Wrong!!!

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