For decades, the UN/IPCC, NASA/NOAA, and their academic sharecroppers have been terrorizing the uninformed public about how human-caused CO2 increase leads the world to catastrophic global warming and rising sea levels. All the while, they were grossly underestimating the impacts on climate change caused by volcanic and tectonic activities. In this Part-1 of a three-part series, we will present the latest findings and data that shows how the Earth’s internal nuclear furnace may play a very significant role in the Earth’s climate change. In subsequent Parts 2 will reconcile all of the significant causes of climate change. In Part 3, we put all the climate change pieces together and provide our climate change forecast for the next 50 years.

Figure -1 below shows the temperature record from the start of our satellite measurements that began about 40 years ago until today. It is the temperature measured in the lower troposphere of our atmosphere, which averages 43,000 feet above mean sea level around the Earth. In contrast, Figure – 2 is the El Nino-La Nina heating and cooling cycles of the Pacific Ocean. Do these two effects interact with each other, and if so – how so?

There have been three powerful El Nino – hot cycles shown as red stars on the top of Figure – 1. During these 40 years, two were very powerful; one in 1997-98 and the other in 2015-2016. And we see them coinciding with the two biggest jumps in global high temperatures.

Where is global warming's missing heat coming from? Part-1

In Figure – 2, we see indications of a total of 9 – high temp excursions with ONIi (Oceanic Nino Index)ii of 1.5 to 2.0, and 4 above 2.0, and the last two even hovering around 2.5. By contrast, the cooling El Nina has only 7 cooling excursions of a minus 1.5 and zero reaching the minus 2.0 levels. So in the last 40 years, the warming El Nino has been overpowering the cooling effects of the El Nina, and we see that reflected in the overall trend of a rise of about a plus 0.5 Cover these last 40 years.

Where is global warming's missing heat coming from? Part-1 1

Another piece of the puzzle is seen in this article, where we are told that the upper atmosphere is cooling, and we would expect that during a period of declining solar activities of the last 20 years.

Is this mere coincidence or a possible cause and effect relationship? Let us bring in one last developing trend before answering. Many scientific papers, articles, and even media/press have connected increased volcanic activities to an increase in galactic cosmic ray flux. During periods of high solar magnetic activities, the sun blasts the Earth’s atmosphere with powerful solar winds Where is global warming's missing heat coming from? Part-1 2and magnetic fields. They cause some nuisance interferences with TV and radio transmissions, but the benefits are enormous. They help to greatly reduce the electrically charged particles of these cosmic rays away from the Earth’s central mass, guiding them instead to the northern and southern polar regions. There they do little damage and entertain us with the colorful Aurora Borealis-Norther lights and Aurora Australis-southern lights.

By contrast, during low solar activities, the solar winds and magnetic fields’ power are greatly diminished. There is a massive increase in the number of these galactic cosmic rays that bombard the tropics and the northern and southern temperate zones. These cosmic rays collide with atmospheric gasses (see red circle in Figure – 3) and create untold gazillions of nuclides in the 3-5 micrometer range. Figure – 4 shows the perfect inverse relationship between the decreased solar magnetic activities and the increased cosmic ray flux. These nuclides are the Where is global warming's missing heat coming from? Part-1 3seeds around which water vapor condenses, resulting in more denser and water-laden clouds. The increased cloud cover and atmospheric ash reflect more of the sun’s heat to space, thus cooling the Earth. Secondly, when water vapor condenses into liquid water (rain) or ice (snow), it releases enormous amounts of heat, with most of it going to outer space. This double-barrel effect will significantly reduce the Earth’s global temperature.

This increased Galactic cosmic ray flux is the main reason for the declines in atmospheric temperatures witnessed in the last 20-sh years.

Here are some recent and very relative articles.

Undersea Volcanoes May Be Impacting Climate Change, Undersea Volcanoes May Impact Climate Change.

Seafloor volcano pulses may alter the climate, Seafloor volcano pulses may alter climate

So it appears that the upper atmosphere is cooling as expected, but the lower atmosphere is staying unexpectedly warm. It also seems that the oceans are not cooling as much as would be expected but may even continue warming because of the increased volcanic activities and eruptions occurring unseen and undetected in the deepest ocean floors. This line of reasoning also helps explain the sudden and substantial increase in atmospheric CO2 during this same 40-year period. Oceans hold an estimated 45 times more CO2 than the atmosphere. A fundamental physical property of water states that it expels more dissolved gasses like CO2 and methane as the ocean water warms. Then when the water cools, it reabsorbs the gasses—reducing the atmospheric amount.

In Part-2, we will reconcile the proper role of human-caused CO2 and volcanic effects with the Earth’s energy budget. In Part-3 we put together the critical natural cycles and forces and lay out a comprehensive climate change forecast for the coming half-century.

ii The Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) is NOAA’s primary indicator for monitoring El Niño and La Niña, which are opposite phases of the climate pattern called the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, or “ENSO” for short. NOAA considers El Niño conditions to be present when the Oceanic Niño Index is +0.5 C or higher, indicating the east-central tropical Pacific is significantly warmer than usual.  La Niña conditions exist when the Oceanic Niño Index is -0.5 C or lower, indicating the region is cooler than usual.


  • Dr. Jay Lehr

    CFACT Senior Science Analyst Jay Lehr has authored more than 1,000 magazine and journal articles and 36 books. Jay’s new book A Hitchhikers Journey Through Climate Change written with Teri Ciccone is now available on Kindle and Amazon.

  • Terigi Ciccone

    Engineer, Science Enthusiast and Artist. Loves reading and travel, Naturalist, Author of the new book “A Hitchhiker’s Journey Through Climate Change.”