The Major variables that cause climate change.

Reviewing the Earth's energy budget for those not afraid of a few weeds -- Part two

  1. The sun’s eleven-year magnetic cycle is ignored in the NASA/NOAA Energy Budget, casually dismissed as the change in the energy intensity (W/m2) is considered too small to make a difference. And we tend to agree with that. However, some other changes and considerations must be regarded to make the Energy Budget more meaningful. For example, during the high part of the 11-year solar cycles of which we are now recording number 25, the increased solar winds/magnetic fields reduce the number of cosmic rays that bombard the Earth. As a result, the clouds are less dense and smaller, so less solar energy is reflected in space. Thus, more solar energy enters the Earth’s atmosphere and surface, leading to a warmer climate. During the activity downturn, reduced solar winds/magnetic fields result in more, bigger, and denser clouds; thus, more solar energy is reflected to space, resulting in a cooler earth. The accepted Energy Budget ignores this, keeping this reflection fixed at about 30%. In Figure-3, we see how the number of cosmic rays consistently changes in the exact opposite direction of the solar cycle changes. In addition, not all solar cycles are the same, as shown by the blue trend line. Dr. Zharkova has predicted, with impressive evidence, that this downward trend in activity may continue for the next 30-40 years. This pattern appears around every 400-years. The last time this happened, the Earth experienced the “Little Ice Age,” which ended in the 1700s when General Washington and his troops at Valley Forge were experiencing the coldest climate the Earth had known in the past 10,000 years.

  2. We must also consider the Milankovitch cycles, which define how far the Earth is from the sun, changing about every 100,000-years. And the change in the tilt of the Earth with respect to the sun about every 40,000-years determines where the solar energy is received and distributed over Earth. These two factors seem to align with the 100,000 ice age cycles of the last several million years.

  3. We must also consider cosmic ray cycles as defined by Israeli astrophysicist Nir Shaviv, who has shown that the ice ages also seem to occur when the Earth is within an arm of the Milky Way as it rotates into critical positions. He identifies the cause of the greater flux of cosmic rays due to the proximity of the many supernovae, causing more significant ionization in our atmosphere, causing greater water condensation, causing more cloudiness, causing lower temperature. We do not think any alarmist climate scientists could ever get their arms around these marvelous complexities.

  4. It’s worth repeating from part one that the Earth’s nuclear furnace is ignored.i Volcanic activity is treated as a minor constant. Historical evidence in the geological record providesReviewing the Earth's energy budget for those not afraid of a few weeds -- Part two 1 evidence that variations in volcanic activities may be what causes ice ages to start and ice ages to stop. Peter Langdon Ward, Ph.D., provides the evidence in his book “What Really Causes Global Warming.” Look again at Figure 2B and then look at figure-4 below. This is the Earth’s global temperature record as measure by our satellites, the most accurate measurements of surface temperatures. Here we see a substantial temperature increase from 1979 to about 1999 driven by increased solar activities. But also look at the yellow stars indicating 4-very powerful El Nino events adding a push to the global temperature rise. Then starting about 2000, we see the temperature decline due to lower solar activities up until today. Yet we also see that in 2011 another powerful El Nino drove the temperatures back up, followed by two more powerful El Ninos in 2016 and 2020 that slowed down the cooling trend of the solar magnetic activities. The El Niño can be used as a proxy for volcanic activities worldwide, especially in the deepest oceans.

Reviewing the Earth's energy budget for those not afraid of a few weeds -- Part two 3

Reviewing the Earth's energy budget for those  not afraid of a few weeds -- Part two 4


The bottom line is that the NASA/NOAA Earth’s Energy Budget may be an entertaining way to amuse children, distract the media/press, and enrich the CO2 industry and Al Gore. However, after reviewing the above facts dismissed and ignored by NASA/NOAA, it renders “The Energy Budget” a joke and an insult to the actual science and scientists of climate change. Figure-5 best summarizes our technical conclusion, but more must be said.

If you grasp the factual complexity we have placed before you in this two-part essay and are confident you do, you must never retake climate model prediction seriously. Of course, you already know telling folks human-caused climate change is an existential threat to life on Earth in the short term has always been not the talk of lunatics, but rather the message of those who hate our country’s form of government and the freedoms it provides. They desire complete control over our lives through energy rationing that will be required without access to inexpensive oil, natural gas, coal, and nuclear. The human-caused climate change narrative has been the most successful mechanism to take control of the world’s governments since Lenin engineered the Bolshevik Revolution in 1917 to overthrow Russia and create a communist nation that eventually destroyed 100 million lives. Keep this in mind the next time a discussion of climate change arises among your friends and colleagues.


  • Terigi Ciccone

    Engineer, Science Enthusiast and Artist. Loves reading and travel, Naturalist, Author of the new book “A Hitchhiker’s Journey Through Climate Change.”

  • Dr. Jay Lehr

    CFACT Senior Science Analyst Jay Lehr has authored more than 1,000 magazine and journal articles and 36 books. Jay’s new book A Hitchhikers Journey Through Climate Change written with Teri Ciccone is now available on Kindle and Amazon.