Extreme cold on the table for Europe and then, the U.S.

Rain and storms are not only important for the storms themselves, but when they start repeating, they try to tell you something.

Notice how much rain we have had up the east coast the past ten days.

I have clients in Europe involved in De-Icing planes. Because of the way things are done today in the EU, getting the materials to create the fluid can be prohibitive.  So, my client has to know well before winter when he can get the supplies before anyone else does and at lower prices.  So we talk all year round. He is one of those people who knows the weather inside out, so it is more like we conference, But HE LOOKS AT THE WEATHER ALL YEAR ROUND. Obviously, snow and cold to him mean more than what goes on in one’s backyard.

In any case, we had a big winter forecasted in Europe.  The first shot came in December; perhaps Al Gore helped it out since most forecast services got caught flat-footed, and we all know about the Gore effect. (Nature shoving it back at him at these conferences.)  I wrote this explaining how Mets reporting on storms hitting the UK were more concerned with blaming climate change than understanding what it was signaling!    https://www.cfact.org/2023/11/28/climate-agenda-blinding-people-to-the-forecast/ And then when it came and caused airports to close in Europe, the Climate Cabal (that’s what they are) claimed it was global warming that caused it, I have never seen such ignorance on display. Fitting, Ignorance, and Arrogance are what people who are pushing this are all about.

So look at the rain Nov 6-20 as heavy rain streaks into Europe:

Look at the cold that came Nov 26-Dec 10

It warmed up after this.  The last 2 weeks:

But the rains have come again:

This time, the cold is coming back and holding. And Europe’s energy situation will be tested.

January temps and snow:

Germany is again an epicenter.

But this is the Canary in the coal ( COLD???)  mine for the US. Our winter forecast called for a warmer-than-average December, and then JFM colder and stormier than average. My concern is the next 2-3 weeks, though not terribly cold (It will be colder than average across the south but still mild across the north, but with normals coming down, it will be cold enough for snow to be put down). It will be followed later in the month, into February, by severe widespread cold.

I have been covering this threat since fall, and you are probably hearing tales of the stratospheric warming going on, something we counted on for the winter well before.  Most of the analogs we looked at had that kind of event. So, if right, it will be good old-fashioned grunt work that got in front of models.

This JFM forecast is from us:

These are not a probability scheme but actual temps. The US model 10 days ago had this:

It has “cooled” to this:

But there is no cool anywhere, just normal. So, we have a big difference with the model.

This is excerpted from Weatherbell.com on setting up the severe cold later in Jan.

Thirty days of snow on the euro.

So the snow gets laid down.

On Jan 8, the Euro 500 mb looks like this:

Here is the blend of 4 of the most severe 5 day cold shots in the last 50 years for the entire nation:

20 days later:

Here is the European for  Feb 4:

There are a lot of hints.

There is a strat-warm that precedes a major cold.

There is an easterly QBO. This is associated with increased blocking and patterns that back up (for example cold in Europe first).

There is a migrating ONI Modoki with weak to non-existent comparative ( SOI) enso metrics.

Once to the 20th and beyond and especially centered around Feb 1 ( and, btw, its not like before that nothing is going on, there is plenty) the kind of severe extreme US cold that can deliver freezes to the LRGV and Florida, send it to 0 in NYC and -10 in Chicago; I think this is on the table. If it happens, it is not like it came out of nowhere.

OPPOSITE LAST WINTER when severe cold at Christmas flipped for JFM to warm,  We have been saying it’s the opposite this year.

But if this does happen it fits into this idea:

In March I put out the Fab 5. 57-58,65-66,02-03, 09-10,86-87. for this winter. The hypothesis I have about what is causing warming says a strong short-lived El Nino would develop ( ONI). This was in defiance of modeling as the dynamic models were weaker and the statistical barely had any at all. As it turns out, with the SOI and MEI that was not a bad idea. The problem is the model was not forecasting for that, it was forecasting for the ONI. Those were the years shown.

Just using those years, Christmas should look like this:

It did:

So, from almost 8 months out, the correct analogs forecasted the warmth.

The entire HDD season starting in November:

JFM:

Central to this is respect for the La Nina base state shown so clearly by the MEI since the ’97-’98 Super Nino.

This is clearly showing that El Nino can no longer last relative to the overall base state, so a quick turn to a La Nina for next year was forecasted. So, there is no lollygagging to a La Nada, The La Nina is coming gangbusters. Other areas of the ocean are not susceptible to the slosh back like this as we continue overall to get the input of high geothermal. Sorry, it’s there, no matter what you want to say about man-made input.

With it comes the step-up function, the product of the overload, as big El Ninos go off ( this one amplified by last year’s volcano input of WV).

The way it warms due to the relationship of wv to temps has distorted the global wind oscillation, meaning we have stronger easterlies in the tropical Pacific in the means (intuitive if you warm up the western and northern Pacific more due to the circulation distributing heat). So, westerlies can not sustain themselves in the tropical Pacific, and the La Chateliarian response is a quick return in the atmosphere to the La Nina base state. And the Oceanic Nino Index is responding; look at this by next summer.

Hence, the Dec 2023  hurricane forecast for next year, https://www.weatherbell.com/hurricane-season-from-hell-first-look , which, if it has merit, means the hurricane season from hell is coming. That also is nine months out. So let us see when it’s all said and done how N-M plays out with JFM in front of us. But rest assured, this has as its source information that is totally ignored in many circles, and I think is supplying an important source region for explaining the why of the weather and climate now and by doing that aiding in going forward.

Bottom line: Winter has played possum so far but it was supposed to. What I am seeing now says to me that JFM has the potential to turn severe, with the worst part for the states later this month into mid-February and Europe in January. It is exciting not only because of the weather but also because it is a test of the hypothesis that has been shown here on CFACT so many times.

If your car does not start or your energy prices go through the roof, you’ll have seen it coming.