Climate campaigners turn a blind eye to anything that cannot be explained by man-made activity

There have been a lot of unprecedented events going on in the Western Pacific. It’s amazing that no one in the major media outlets talks about this, given the source region this represents. It’s likely because there are blinders on as to anything that might be driving the weather besides man-made climate change, so such events that to those of us who watch this area are watching jaw-dropping events.

1st of all, the Honga Volcano above water inputs of unreal amounts of water vapor in the air likely led to the spike in global temperatures. It was the San Jacinto that caused the warming. There are many underwater vents, 10 MILLION of them, and we don’t know what the heck they are doing. But by observing rises in the Skin Surface temperatures ( SST) since the start of their increase around 1990, we can guess. After all, CO2 had been on the rise for 50 years. The bands that do the feedback were saturated from 1950. What changed? CO2 does not absorb incoming radiation but needs to be increased.  OUTGOING LONG WAVE RADIATION (OLR) warming of the surface is a way to do that. Or a decrease in cloud cover over the tropics is a nice way, which would be a by-product of distorted warming as it changes. Sea Level Pressure, Global Wind Oscillation, and Vertical Velocity patterns. But the volcano was the San Jacinto (pulling the opponent into the trap) of the man-made warming argument because, without it, there would not have been the warming.

Now consider this:

1) 3rd lowest typhoon total on record in a so-called El Nino season (there was no El Nino as far as the Southern Oscillation Index was concerned).  The years of El Ninos are when typhoons are supposed to run wild. The Accumulated Cyclonic Energy in the western Pacific got pretty close to average out there after 3 almost record-low years, which may be a record-low year. Given the West Pacific is responsible for 50% of the global ACE, this is a huge signal since the Atlantic has 1/3rd the ACE of the Western Pacific. So this year, if you double the Atlantic ACE but cut the West Pac by 50% the result between the two is below-average.

Have you heard anyone talk about this? I mean, aren’t we all globalists now? You hear if a typhoon goes wild (but like we see in the Atlantic they have tended to weaken if they are long-tracked as they approach the continents).  So we hear about the Atlantic, but its crickets in the Pacific.

2) The SOI never reached an El Nino status (-8) for a ninety-day period).    That the Oceanic Nino Index (ONI) reached 2 makes it even freakier. The other ONI El Ninos that reached 2.0 in 1982,1997,2015 all had strong SOI responses for DJF. This year, it was -6 with an unprecedented POSITIVE IN JAN!

2015-16. -16

1997-1998  -18

1982-1983  WAS A -30

How is this not brought up?

The warmer the West Pac gets, the weaker the SOI response. This is a big deal. An obvious by-product of climate change except the reason for it can not be linked strongly to man, but other inputs. Which makes it something no one will touch.

The MEI ( multi variate enso index), up until they killed it, had a record difference from the ONI. That is huge. And the loss of the MEI as a data source, since it RELIES ON ACTUAL OBSERVATIONS NOT SOME REANALYSIS, is a blow to objectivity.

3) unprecedented warming in January around Australia

November

Jan

change

SERIOUSLY, WHERE DID THAT COME FROM, MAGIC?  IT IS OPPOSITE OF THE EL NINO ANALOG.

But now comes this. I can’t even believe this could happen.

But this would add to the string of events that appear to be unprecedented.

Look at SST temps now:

Here is the same day in 1989:

This is when the geothermal spreading started to increase.

Again, that it PRECEDED the rise means a likely contribution to the causation.

Now look at that above and try to imagine the change in Water Vapor input.  I say imagine because it seems, despite being a much more prominent GHG and one that actually can be a “heat-trapping gas”, it is not quantified like CO2. The fact is the rise of the CO2 monster started way before this, and the warming was almost nonexistent in the oceans.

It got shifted around, some places cooler, some warmer, but nothing like the change since the geothermal input started.

But now comes this from the CFSV2 ( Climate Forecast System version 2), and I have been watching this like a hawk: what would be a record drop in Indo pacific SST:

For you lovers of winter, that is not that bad a picture off the west coast. That ring has been associated with colder, stormier winters and also linked to increased hurricane activity for the US, which the model is likely seeing. Notice the cooling off of the southeast coast, a likely by-product of the model seeing plenty of hurricanes churning up water. And lots of rain. Certainly,  the precip chart says that.

This is very close to our analog years in the Dec 7, 2023 hurricane forecast we put out ( link below):

https://www.weatherbell.com/hurricane-season-from-hell-first-look

But now, getting back to that drop.

Now:

Forecast for November (remember this is after all the hurricanes went through. Notice the warm water still left in the typhoon areas where we are forecasting a season about 50% of average or a near-record low).

This is almost as cold in the INDO Pacific as in November of 1989. In fact, it is not as cold as in the Indian Ocean back then and the La Nina this year is stronger.

Now let me ask you this question, if the oceans had not warmed, do you think the air would have warmed? So it comes down to what warmed the oceans.  Why is the model seeing the drop, which would be unprecedented in that area of the world and the strongest El Nino to La Nina turnaround on record (there is another event that should be at least talked about)?

Why is the model seeing this?  Because — and we can not confirm this fully yet — there may have been a downturn in geothermal activity.

Remember, the warmer it gets the more it needs even more input to warm more. So, any downturn may start a response. But I DON’T KNOW. I  believe it, but I can’t know it because we do not have the data saturation. We only have one data point for every 112k square miles, and they only go to 6k. I suspect they are seeing cooling at that level. The average depth of the ocean floor is 14k. So, I have no proof. But people who just look at one thing — man-made climate change — have no proof it is not. SOMETHING IS GOING ON. Since the  CO2 rise has been constant in its up-down fashion, how can it be CO2? (Never mind that its back radiation relies on surface warming, fewer clouds, and more Outgoing Longwave radiation), inconvenient facts when blaming CO2 for warming the oceans when it only penetrates a mm or 2 of the surface.

You see we know a lot about the air and the sun, but of the oceans, laughably little.

But here is something as a weather nut or climate person, or someone who may be opened-minded enough to ask questions that you should be aware of: A lot is going on here that is way way beyond “this is the warmest ever”. There are indications to the opposite, and they are in the form of what should be raising the curiosity of every meteorologist, including those in media, the academics in the field, and the professional organizations.

I am excited about testing my idea in the coming years. The reason for the increased geothermal could be linked to the turning of the earth’s core in a natural cycle, which increases stress on the ocean floor, releasing more heat through the 10 million geothermal vents. But it’s not looked at and scoffed at when it is. It’s like a willingness to not look since it would upset so many applecarts. In the meantime, along with the highest global temperatures on record over the last year, which can be traced to WV increase as much as anything else, from a natural source, other events in a crucial area for weather and climate have been and are occurring.

But where the heck is the field of meteorology, and the Media outlets on all this? I have just listed these unprecedented events in the major climate source region for the planet (a couple of others are being forecasted). They should be having a field day with examinations into this rather than saying the same thing over and over again.

And sadly, the curiosity about them may be a victim of climate blinders, which are needed to just look at one thing, as well as the pressure to look the other way that is put on a lot of people who make a living at this.

That’s not a search for truth.