COP31 is upon us, and while you may think it is pointless, it is still a spectacle worth watching.
These folks are professional negotiators who could just as easily spend eleven luxury days debating the seating priorities on the first passenger trip to Mars. There is also the enormous global trade show that comes with it.
So here are a few interesting negotiations to look out for. The beginning of the end of COPs might even be on the table. This is not about the formal agenda because tricky issues have a way of springing up. Surprise is a big part of the spectacle.
First, there is the annual issue of MORE MONEY. Mind you, funding commitments are never mentioned, just more ways to get it. This year there are at least two “funding mechanisms” under discussion.
One is called the “Just Transition Mechanism” where the transition is question is the imaginary end of fossil fuel use. The idea is to fund regions, communities, businesses, and people who are hurt by the transition. Unemployed oilfield workers for example, when we stop using oil.
This critter already exists at the EU level having been created around 2021.
https://commission.europa.eu/topics/regional-and-urban-policy/just-transition-mechanism_en
The issue at COP31 is whether to create a global version of the Just Transition Mechanism.
The second proposed new mechanism is the “Pacific Resilience Facility (PRF),” which is not actually a UN Climate activity. Australia, which just signed a PRF Treaty with Fiji, explains it this way:
“The PRF is the first Pacific-led, owned and managed community resilience financing facility. It will provide grants for climate adaptation, disaster preparedness, and projects that respond to loss and damage. It will seize the economic opportunities of clean energy through resilient, community led projects.”
What the PRF is doing at COP31 is unclear and there is a lot of that going around.
There are a growing number of non-UN climate activities springing up. Each is driven by the correct observation that the COP extravaganzas are going nowhere.
The leading example is the effort to develop fossil fuel transition “roadmaps” for every country. This is explained in my article “The ‘Transitioning Away from Fossil Fuels’ project has become a global program.”
Another rogue activity is designing a new Fossil Fuel Treaty (FFT) mandating the phase out that countries can adopt (possibly using a roadmap). As a treaty, the FFT would be a legally binding instrument enforceable by the courts. The FFT has its own promoting organization here.
https://www.fossilfueltreaty.org/
What is most interesting is that such a treaty has the potential to destabilize the UN Climate Change Program. The UN Program is based on an existing treaty, the 1992 Framework Convention on Climate Change (FCCC). The FFT could compete with the FCCC such as for financial resources and even for jurisdiction. The FFT might even make the FCCC obsolete.
Ironically, the Roadmap rogue started with a suggestion by the COP30 president. The COP31 president has made a new suggestion called the “electrification goal.” The core electrification goal for COP31 is the “35 by 35” pledge, which aims to raise electricity’s share of global final energy consumption from roughly 20–23% today to 35% by 2035. This too may become a non-UN activity.
How COP31 will handle these rogue initiatives is the really big show.