The center has fallen out of the political EU. In the recent EU parliamentary elections both the left and the right made big gains, at the expense of what had seemed to be a perpetual middle majority. The so-called centrist parties got clobbered by a political fragmentation bomb. The EU is now fragmented. Much follows from this.
How this bi-polar shift will now play out is important in interesting ways. But basically the EU is facing a political situation like we have long had here in America, with great polarization. This is especially true for the EU in the politically charged areas of climate change and energy policy. On the left the greens made the greatest gains. On the right the big winners are skeptical.
On the U.S. side roughly half of the American populace thinks human caused climate change is real. An unknown fraction of that half thinks human caused climate change is also dangerous, calling for aggressive government action. The House “Committee on the Climate Crisis” is an obvious example and the popular but absurd Green New Deal is another.
At the same time most of the more conservative half of the American people rejects the entire idea of dangerous human caused climate change. This includes the President, his staff, and me.
In a hilarious token of the U.S. left wing view, one of their grand tabloids — The New Republic – – has branded CFACT’s own Marc Morano as an “influential crackpot.” They conspicuously fail to mention that he is influential with what might well be a majority of Americans. But then the New Republic probably regards the majority of Americans as crackpots. The left is like that.
The New Republic article’s title is a study in polarization — “Climate Deniers Are the Hysterical Alarmists.” Skeptics of the bogus climate crisis are name-called “climate deniers” which is a nonsensical term to begin with. No one denies that climate exists. But they at least acknowledge that we skeptics think the alarmists have become hysterical, as this popular 3 minute video explains. There is no climate crisis or emergency and these terms are clearly hysterical.
The first big EU test will be on the naming of EU Commissioners, which have typically been center pieces. My limited understanding is that there is one commissioner for each EU country, but they need not come from every country, or maybe they do. In any case the newly powered left and right are not likely to accept the old centrist formula. On the contrary, we may well see a collection of left and right commissioners, after hardball internal political fighting.
Or we might see no commissioners agreed on for the tough spots. This is especially true for climate and energy, where the fight is biggest between the new powers. Polarization can be paralyzing, as with the present Congress. The EU parliament may also be paralyzed.
This is all in keeping with my prediction that “2020 climate madness looms.” The EU has always been big on relatively aggressive climate change policy. Now that policy may be torn to shreds, pulled apart by two opposing forces. There is a big UN meeting this September, less than 4 months away, in which the EU has been expected to announce tougher targets under the Paris Accord. That may no longer happen, which would be a major blow indeed to climate change alarmism.
Time will tell. Stay tuned to CFACT for coverage of the EU’s grand predicament. It won’t be easy to solve but it might be great fun to watch.