The extreme scenarios put forth at the New York climate summit continue to be revealed as fantasy.  A new research paper concludes that climate sensitivity to CO2 is far less than the UN proclaimed.

Judith Curry

Dr. Judith Curry

The prolonged failure of global temperatures to behave as UN IPCC computer models project is a major embarrassment for the global warming campaign.

Climate researchers Nicholas Lewis and Judith Curry have just published a new paper in the journal Climate Dynamics,

You can read the full paper, The implications for climate sensitivity of AR5 forcing and heat uptake estimates at

A press release from the Global Warming Policy Foundation states:

Earlier this year, in a widely discussed report for the Global Warming Policy Foundation, climate researcher Nic Lewis and science writer Marcel Crok put forward a new estimate of the Earth’s climate sensitivity based on observational data, finding that it was much less alarming than suggested by computer simulations of the Earth’s climate.

Now, Lewis and well known American climate science professor Judith Curry have updated the Lewis and Crok report estimates using the latest empirical data, a more sophisticated methodology and an approach to accounting for uncertainties that has been described by one independent reviewer as “state of the art”. Their findings fully support the modest estimates of climate sensitivity and future warming given in the Lewis and Crok report, and compared with that report make it look even less likely that the substantially higher estimates based on computer simulations are correct.

It is fundamental to the scientific method that a researcher’s hypothesis, no matter how much they may like it, must yield to real world observational data.  When the model and the data disagree, it is the model that must change.

If thCO2 Greene sensitivity of the Earth’s climate to CO2 is much smaller than UN models claim, everything we have been repeatedly told about climate science is exaggerated and provides no basis for sound energy policy.