Another huge heatwave is coming to the West.
I did an extensive post on Weatherbell.com on the evolution of the pattern from winter, perfectly natural though enhanced by the distorted warming that has taken place in reaction to the warming of the oceans. That Oceanic warming has always been cyclical and natural. But it does lead to an interesting competition between positive and negative reactions in regard to people. The Weather does not have feelings, people do, and so the weather does what it will do naturally, but people reactions to it vary. In any case, that blog traces the origins of the warm eastern winter due to the large scale pattern in the tropical Pacific, that evolved to the sudden turn to colder in April and May, to the hurricane season being greater than average in the Atlantic while the Pacific Basin shut down. And by the way, climate speaking that is much more important than the Atlantic. The Pacific has 4 times the ACE of the Atlantic, and playing the name game is not a full portrayal of what is going on. The Globe is having one of its lowest years on record as far as tropical production. But one of the offshoot of all this is a repeat of the western “ridge” eastern trough that we saw in spring, as we head into fall. Some of the latest cold on record showed up this year in the east and plains, and recently some of the earliest cold (and another major shot is on the way). Chances are we go back to a warmer than average winter in the east.
But why would the same pattern that occurred in the spring NOT produce wildfires, but would do so now? Because winter is wetter, summer is drier, so we dry out and we are more prone to wildfires ( 90% btw human caused). So when a pattern like this:
leads to an early spring in the west and eastern cold, at this time of the year when it shows up, the kind of monster enhancement:
It leads to temperatures like this:
to enhanced chances for wildfires. But you don’t know the origin of this pattern that was evolving from far away places long ago and led to the natural evolution. Instead all you know is the west is burning up and it’s a sign of man made climate change that demands immediate action, which of course is jumped on by people with the agenda they have. Its an example of weaponization, which my book deals with
that enlists fear and panic and demands a reaction for safety. It is very easy to see this classic tactic used by just looking at 2 charts. The first chart is what most young kids being taught seen, the increase in wildfires since 1981
And its blamed on manmade global warming. Never mind the population explosion in the west which using simple analysis, given man is responsible for 90% of wildfires would have to lead to an increase. More people hiking in the woods, More campfires etc. Here are the leading causes.
As many as 90 percent of wildland fires in the United States are caused by people, according to the U.S. Department of Interior. Some human-caused fires result from campfires left unattended, the burning of debris, downed power lines, negligently discarded cigarettes and intentional acts of arson.
This is not from a right wing think tank but instead from this site.
More people, more fires. Combine that with a classic “road to hell paved with good intentions” environmental policy that discourages the kind of forest management needed, and what do you think is going to happen?
Any discussion of Wildfires without the proper historic perspective, in my opinion, is either purposefully deceptive, or just sloppy preparation. How can you have a debate without the entire picture? You can’t, and that circles back to what this may be all about, the shutting down of debate, in an effort to weaponize these events for an agenda that has little to do with how it is portrayed.
In what I do, the key is letting people know the why BEFORE the what. The Long and Winding Road that has led to this Door of Wildfire enhancement (come on, where are you going to see a blog tying in weather with the Beatles. You gotta love that,) has been there well before. But if its kept hidden, then people will buy whatever they are told, and given what is going on today, the results speak for themselves in how all these things are portrayed.