Artificial praise For AI weather models
By Joe Bastardi |2024-12-07T20:01:31-05:00December 8th, 2024|
A.I. is no better than the people who program it.
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A.I. is no better than the people who program it.
A new satellite study of rainfall suggests that during the last 20 years the intensity of rainfall has mysteriously declined.
If Boris Johnson and his ministers had done their homework, they would have known they were on a road to nowhere.
The article is "The Impact of CO2, H2O and Other “Greenhouse Gases” on Equilibrium Earth Temperatures" by Coe, Fabinski and Weigleb, in the International Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences.
Global warming policy is based on climate computer models. These simulations of the temperature of the Earth are wrong and always have been. They start out on the left side of the graph looking pretty good. They have to. Real-world recorded temperature observations had already been made. It's like projecting the results of races that have already been run. As soon as the models start trying to project the future, however, they diverge wildly from reality, pretty much always running way too hot. Projecting races that have not yet run is a trickier business. Dr. Roy Spencer and Dr. John Christy [...]
In 68 simulations the climate experts repeatedly discover how a fantasy Earth warmed twice as fast as the real Earth has.
People accustomed to seeing forecasts of things that are somewhat remote, somewhat abstract in time, place, and consequences are suddenly being exposed to how the sausage is made in predictive forecasting, and many are not liking what they’ve seen.
Decisions — such as when and how the country can emerge from this economically and socially destructive shutdown — can’t wait until perfect model data is possible.
COVID-19 models are adjusted down when real data disagrees. Climate modelers should give that a try.
The most disheartening aspect of the Covid-19 pandemic is that nothing in the numbers presented gives any indication of hope of the end being in sight.